April in review
All you need to know (and then some) about the Marlins' opening month
With April now in the rear-view mirror, today, we dive into some of the numbers that stood out in my research of the Marlins’ opening month.
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SWEET 16
The Marlins finished April 16-13 after going 12-8 in the opening month last season. Miami has posted consecutive winning Aprils for just the 3rd time in franchise history and for the first time since 2008 and 2009, the last 2 years the Marlins finished above .500 in a full season. The only other time the Marlins had consecutive winning Aprils was 2004 and 2005, immediately following their last World Series title in 2003.
After posting a .600 April winning percentage a season ago, the Marlins went 57-85 (.401), the 5th-worst record in MLB, from May 1 through the end of the 2022 season.
23 of the Marlins’ 29 games played so far, 7 of their 9 series, have come against teams that finished April above .500. The only teams they faced that begin May with a losing record are the 13-15 Guardians and 11-16 Giants.
DEFYING THE ODDS
The Marlins are 16-13 despite a -35 run differential that was 2nd-worst in the NL and 6th-worst in all of Baseball during April. While 10 of their 16 wins have been by a single run, they’ve lost 3 games by 10+ runs.
WORST APRIL RUN DIFFERENTIALS IN MLB
Athletics (6-23) -117
White Sox (8-21) -65
Royals (7-22) -64
Rockies (9-20) -54
Tigers (10-17) -47
Marlins (16-13) -35
The Marlins’ Pythagorean record (their expected record based on their total number of runs scored and runs allowed) is 11-18. Their +5 “luck factor” (5 more wins than expected based on their run differential) is the largest in MLB. The Orioles and Blue Jays are +3, while the Padres and Tigers are +2.
The Marlins are one of only 3 teams in MLB to have a winning record through April despite a run differential that’s in the red. They’re joined in that club by the Phillies (15-14 in April with a -4 run differential) and Padres (15-14 despite a -13 run differential).
DIVISION OF POWER
Despite the Big 3 Braves, Mets and Phillies all dealing with a slew of injuries in the season’s first month, the 5 clubs in the NL East combined for a .532 winning percentage through the end of April, the 2nd-best by any of the 6 divisions.
AL East 90-53 (.629): All 5 clubs above .500 led by the Rays, an MLB-best 23-6
NL East 74-65 (.532): Only the 10-17 Nationals have a losing record
NL Central 74-67 (.525): April surprises: Pirates are 20-9 and Cardinals are 10-19
NL West 67-76 (.469): Padres and Dodgers finish April on upswing after slow starts
AL West 65-77 (.458): 6-23 A’s are on pace for the lowest winning pct. in ML history
AL Central 55-87 (.387): Only the 17-12 Twins have a winning record
The Marlins have won 6 of the 9 series they’ve played so far, with all 3 series losses coming within the division (2 against the Mets and one against the Braves). They’re 1-3 in series against the NL East (with a win against the Phillies) and are unbeaten in 5 series outside the division.
Miami is 5-9 against the NL East (1-3 vs. Atlanta, 2-5 vs. New York and 2-1 vs. Philadelphia) and 11-4 outside of the division.
ONE-RUN FUN
Miami is a perfect 10-0 in one-run games after going 24-40 in games decided by a single-run last season, tied for the 6th-most one-run losses in modern (post-1900) ML history…the 1968 White Sox dropped a ML-record 44.
No other ML club has as many one-run victories as the Marlins, and Miami is the only team in the majors that has yet to lose a one-run contest.
The Marlins closed out April by winning their last 4 games, all by one run, marking just the 6th time in club history they’ve won at least 4 straight, all by a single run, in a single season. The last time Miami achieved that feat was August 5-7, 2020. The Marlins won a club-record 5 in a row, all by one run, August 8-13, 1999 (1 vs. Colorado, 3 vs. San Francisco and 1 at San Diego). In addition to the 2020 streak, they also won 4 straight, all by one run, in 1993, 2012 and 2013.
In modern ML history (since 1900), only 38 teams have won 5 or more in a row, all by one run. The last team to do it was the 2012 Athletics. The ML record for consecutive wins, all by one run, is 7, set by the 1927 Cubs. The 1916 St. Louis Browns and the 1989 Angels won 6 straight, all by one run.
4 x 2
The Marlins had a pair of 4-game winning streaks in April, one of only 7 teams in the majors to have multiple 4-game runs. The Pirates won at least 4 in a row 3 times in the opening month, while the Braves, Brewers, Twins, Rays and Blue Jays join Miami in doing so twice. 11 of the 30 major league clubs have yet to win 4 in a row this season. The Athletics and White Sox never even won 2 in a row in the opening month.
Only twice previously in club history had the Marlins had multiple winning streaks of at least 4 games in the season’s opening month, in 1997 and in 2009.
STILL LOOKING FOR OFFENSE
Despite being 3 games over .500 in the season’s opening month, the Marlins’ offensive struggles of the last 5 seasons have carried into 2023. Miami was last in the NL and 28th in MLB, averaging 3.41 runs per game in April, ahead of only the Royals (3.31) and Tigers (3.26).
Only 25 percent of the Marlins who have reached base this season have scored, tied with the Tigers for the lowest rate in MLB. The league average is 32 percent. The AL West-leading Rangers lead the majors at 43 percent while the MLB-best Rays are 2nd at 40 percent.
Miami is 15th out of the 30 clubs in average, hitting .249, but the team average is only .230 if you were to remove Luis Arraez’s ML-best .438 mark. The Marlins are 23rd in OBP, 19th in slugging, 21st in OPS, 23rd in home runs and 27th in walks.
Due in large part to several rule changes, offense has increased across MLB thus far in 2023, and the Marlins’ average, OBP and slugging percentage are all up from 2022 so far. However, their 3.41 runs per game (well below the April ML average of 4.59) are down from 3.62 last year and would be the 2nd-lowest in club history (3.13 in 2013).
The Marlins ended April 23rd in MLB with 26 home runs. That puts them on pace for 145 over 162 games after they hit 144 to rank 24th in MLB last year.
While the Marlins’ numbers are up from last season in many categories, they are below the ML average for April almost across the board:
MARLINS IN APRIL: 3.41 RPG, .249 AVG, .310 OBP, .382 SLG, .691 OPS, 26 HR
MLB AVG IN APRIL: 4.59 RPG, .247 AVG, .321 OBP, .405 SLG, .726 OPS, 32 HR
SAFE AT HOME
The Marlins went 10-6 at loanDepot park and just 6-7 on the road in the season’s opening month. What jumps out is the difference in the pitching staff’s performance.
HOME: 3.33 ERA, 3.7 R/G, 1.137 WHIP, .219 AVG/.294 OBP/.355 SLG/.649 OPS
ROAD: 5.84 ERA, 5.8 R/G, 1.541 WHIP, .273 AVG/.350 OBP/.483 SLG/.833 OPS
ON THE MOUND
The Marlins’ pitching depth is being tested early with the club having used 21 pitchers through the end of April, one behind Oakland for most in MLB.
Among the 5 members of the Marlins’ Opening Day rotation, only Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have yet to miss a turn, forcing Miami to use 8 starters already, also one behind the Athletics for the most in the majors.
The Marlins have used 15 pitchers out of the bullpen, one behind the Rays and A’s for the ML high.
The 8 pitchers who have made at least one start for the Marlins so far have combined to post a 4.26 ERA, 13th in MLB. The rotation finished 2022 with a 3.70 ERA. Leading the way is Braxton Garrett with a 1.89 ERA in 4 starts.
The 15 pitchers who have appeared out of the bullpen for Miami through the first 29 games have posted a cumulative 4.60 ERA that stands 24th in MLB. The bullpen finished with a 4.15 ERA in 2022.
The Marlins’ bullpen worked the 3rd-most innings in the majors through the end of April, while Miami starters have averaged 4.9 innings per start, tied for 4th-fewest in MLB.
SANDY’S SHAKY START
Sandy Alcantara went 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA in 5 April starts and missed one start due to what was called a mild case of biceps tendinitis. He had a 5-start stretch that was even a bit rockier a season ago en route to winning the NL Cy Young Award in a unanimous vote. From August 21-September 13, Alcantara was 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA. He allowed 5 runs once and gave up 6 twice in that 5-start span before registering a 1.08 ERA over his final 3 starts, allowing 3 runs in his last 25 innings.
The Marlins have lost 4 of the 5 games Sandy has started so far this season. While he dazzled in a 3-hit shutout for a 1-0 win April 4 vs. Minnesota, he has a 7.17 ERA in his other 4 starts, averaging 5 innings per outing in those games.
Of the 19 runs he’s allowed in 30 1/3 innings of work, 15 of them have come in only 4 innings (actually only 2 2/3 innings of work). He has allowed only 4 runs in his other 27 2/3 innings.
ARRAEZ AND SHINE
Luis Arraez lead the majors in batting (.438) and OBP (.500) and topped the NL in slugging (.551) and OPS (1.051) in April. It was the best full month of his 5-year ML career in all 4 categories.
His .438 average is the best ever by a qualifying Marlin in a full calendar month.
The last big leaguer with at least 100 plate appearances in a calendar month to hit for a higher average was Jose Altuve, who batted .485 in July of 2017 en route to the AL MVP Award.
Arraez’s .500 OBP is the 3rd-best ever by a qualifying Marlin in a full calendar month. Gary Sheffield had a .556 OPB in September/October of 1996 and a .508 OBP in May of 1995.
ALRIGHT VS. LEFT
The Marlins batted .302 with a .778 OPS against left-handed pitching in the season’s opening month, up from .208 with a .597 OPS against lefties last season.
MARLINS LEADING HITTERS AGAINST LHP (Min. 10 PA)
Garrett Cooper .550 (11-for-20), 3B, 2 RBI
Garrett Hampson .455 (5-for-11), 4 2B, 2 RBI
Luis Arraez .381 (8-for-21), 5 RBI
Jon Berti .368 (7-for-19), 2B, HR, 3 RBI
Jorge Soler .353 (6-for-17), 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI
CHECKING IN ON THE IMPACT OF THE NEW RULES
With new shift limitations in place in 2023, the Marlins had a .315 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in the season’s opening month, tied for 4th-best in MLB. The league average was .298. In 2022, the Marlins BABIP was .284, tied for 21st in MLB. The league average was .290 last season.
Overall, the 2023 Marlins batted .249 through the end of April after hitting .230 as a team last season.
With larger bags reducing the distance between the bases and new limits imposed upon pitchers’ ability to throw over, the Marlins finished April 27-for-31 in the stolen base department, good for the 5th-most steals in MLB. That puts them on a 150-stolen base pace, which would tie for 3rd-most in club history. They stole 177 in 2002, 168 in 2000 and 150 in 2003. They swiped 122 bags a season ago, most in the NL and 2nd to only Texas in MLB.
The Marlins’ 87 percent stolen base success rate is tied for 4th in the majors with the Braves, trailing only the Red Sox (92 percent), White Sox (90 percent) and Mets (88 percent). Miami’s success rate is up from 81 percent in 2022.
Jazz Chisholm has 11 of the team’s 27 steals.
Jon Berti is 2nd on the team with 4 stolen bases after leading the majors with 41 thefts in 2022. The last player to lead the NL (and also to lead the majors) in steals in back-to-back seasons was Dee Gordon, with the Dodgers in 2014 and the Marlins in 2015.
The Marlins are the only team in MLB that did not have a runner picked off in April after leading the majors in times picked off at 38 in 2021-22 combined. The 2021 Marlins were picked off a ML-high and club-record 23 times. Last year, Marlins runners were caught on the bases 15 times, most in the NL and 2nd to only Texas in MLB.
The Marlins’ average time of game has been 2:34, down 32 minutes from 3:06 in 2022. Miami is tied for the 3rd-fastest average time of game in MLB:
Royals 2:30
Twins 2:31
Marlins 2:34
Rangers 2:34
Rays 2:34
Yankees 2:34
Braves 2:34
ATTENDANCE WOES CONTINUE
Despite their better-than-expected start, and despite getting a bump by playing 7 of their first 16 home games on weekends against the Mets and Cubs—whose fans outnumbered Marlins fans throughout those series—the Marlins finished April last in the NL and 29th in MLB in average attendance at 13,659.
They rank ahead of only the 6-23 Oakland Athletics, who are on pace to post the lowest winning percentage in major league history and last month announced they’d signed a binding agreement to purchase a plot of land in Las Vegas on which they intend to build a new ballpark to move the team.
The Marlins failed to sell out Opening Day. They drew as many as 20,000 twice in their first 16 home openings and attracted fewer than 10,000 for 5 of the first 16 games.
MINOR LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE MONTH
Outfielder Peyton Burdick is off to a sizzling start at Triple-A Jacksonville, where he closed out April hitting .293/.381/.636/1.017 with 4 doubles, 10 homers and 24 RBI. He led the organization in slugging, OPS, homers and RBI and is one long ball behind Christopher Morel of Triple-A Iowa (Cubs) for the top spot in all of Minor League Baseball.
Now 26, the 2019 3rd-rounder out of Wright State struggled in his 32-game ML debut last season, hitting .207/.284/.380/.665 with 4 homers, 35 strikeouts and only 8 walks in 102 plate appearances. But he had a big game on closing day, going 3-for-4 with a homer and 4 RBI in a 12-9 win over the Braves, and has carried that momentum into the first month of 2023.
After going hitless on Opening Day, Burdick hit safely in 15 straight. He has 10 multi-hit games and a pair of 2-homer nights. The strikeouts remain a concern, however, with a 38.9 percent K rate (44 in 113 plate appearances) that’s even higher than his 34.3 rate as a big leaguer in 2022.
With the Jumbo Shrimp, he’s started 12 games in left field, 7 in right and 5 in center.
MINOR LEAGUE PITCHER OF THE MONTH
Lefthander Patrick Monteverde finished April 3-0 with a 0.35 ERA in 4 starts for Double-A Pensacola. He allowed 1 run in 26 Southern League innings, giving up 10 hits and only 4 walks while fanning 38, 3rd-most in all of Minor League Baseball.
The 25-year-old Pittsburgh native was the Marlins’ 8th-round pick in 2021 out of Texas Tech after he’d previously spent one year at Virginia Wesleyan then 3 years at Seton Hill University in Greensburg, PA. He underwent Tommy John surgery as a junior, and pitched in only 4 games over his final 2 years at Seton Hill before spending his redshirt senior year at Texas Tech.
With the Blue Wahoos to begin 2023, he’s worked at least 6 innings in all 4 starts and has fanned 10 or more twice, at least 8 in every start. Opponents are slashing .118/.167/.165/.331 with only 3 extra-base hits in 90 plate appearances.
FORMER MARLIN OF THE MONTH
D-Backs righthander Zac Gallen ended April 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 6 starts and carries a 28-inning shutout streak into the month of May. He leads the NL with 51 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings, having walked only 5, none in his last 3 starts and only 2 his last 5 times out. Opponents have slashed .213/.267/.480/.547 in 141 plate appearances.
ALSO RECEIVING CONSIDERATION: Former Marlins minor leaguer Luis Castillo went 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in 6 April starts for the Mariners with 38 K’s and only 8 walks in 34 2/3 innings. Opponents slashed .189/.237/.268/.505 with only one homer in 135 plate appearances.
UPDATES ON SOME OTHER FORMER FISH
Brian Anderson, now with the Brewers, had the biggest RBI month of his career, driving in 20 in April. His 5 homers in the opening month left him one shy of matching his best-ever home run month. He slugged 6 in June of 2019 and September/October 2020.
Pablo Lopez signed a 4-year, $73.5 million extension with the Twins April 21 after going 1-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his first 4 Minnesota starts. Since the deal was announced, he has a 9.90 ERA his last 2 times out, allowing 11 runs on 16 hits in 10 innings against the last-place Nationals and Royals.
While the Marlins are thrilled with the opening-month performance they’ve received from A.J. Puk, the man they traded to Oakland to acquire their new closer is off to a torrid start at Triple-A. JJ Bleday is batting .316/.429/.643/1.072 with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs and 19 RBI in 25 games at Las Vegas in the Pacific Coast League.
A LOOK AHEAD
As I wrote about 10 days ago, the Marlins have a golden opportunity ahead of them in May and June.
From May 5 (Friday) through June 29, the Marlins are scheduled to play 50 games, with only 2 series—maybe you could argue 3—against teams most expect to reach the postseason in 2023.
In that 8-week span, the Marlins don’t play a single game against the Braves, Mets or Phillies, the Big 3 in the NL East. They play more than half of those 50 games—9 of 16 series—against the D-Backs, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, Athletics, Royals, Pirates and Red Sox, all clubs expected to finish at or near the bottom of their respective divisions.
In advance of a July stretch that straddles the All-Star break in which they’ll play 16 in a row against anticipated contenders Atlanta, St. Louis, Philadelphia and Baltimore, the Marlins have a golden opportunity to reach the mid-way point of the season flying high.
They begin the month of May at home tonight with the first of 3 against the Braves. The Marlins catch a break with Atlanta having been rained out against the Mets both Saturday and Sunday and having to play a doubleheader in New York yesterday while the Marlins enjoyed a day off at home.
The Marlins catch another break, missing both Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton in this series as both started in yesterday’s doubleheader split at Citi Field. The Marlins send ace Sandy Alcantara to the mound in tonight’s series opener before their 2 top starters so far this season, Braxton Garrett and Jesus Luzardo, start the next 2 games.
We’ll also keep an eye on Ronald Acuña Jr.’s availability in this series. Off to a torrid start, the Braves right fielder left game 2 of yesterday’s doubleheader after being hit in the left shoulder by Tylor Megill’s 3rd pitch of the game, a 93.4 MPH fastball. X-rays were negative, and he was listed as day-to-day after the game.
In 29 games, Acuña is batting .363/.450/.584/.1/034 with 10 doubles, 5 home runs and 15 RBI. He leads the majors with 13 stolen bases and 26 runs scored.
The Marlins begin the series having won 4 in a row. They’d won 8 of 11 going into Atlanta last week but lost the first 3 games of the 4-game series at Truist Park, avoiding a sweep with a 5-run 9th in last Thursday’s series finale.
I wrote about the Marlins’ struggles with the Braves last week. After this 3-game series, the Miami will be done with Atlanta until a 3-game series at Truist Park June 30-July 2. The Braves and Marlins will then close out their season series with 3 at loanDepot September 15-17.
There is definitely a place for this information that the vast majority of fans would like to have.
I hope your information is picked up and broadly disseminated.
Great Analysis Glenn. There isn't anyone that I am aware of in the Press that has put together stats
like this pertaining to the Marlins. and made the data public.