Hoping to grow this into something that will continue to be more and more widely disseminated straight from the source. Off to a great start one month in. Just need to keep spreading the word. Appreciate your support, Bob!
The funny thing is, this is just a small percentage of the work I would do on both teams to try to offer context and perspective (and not just “here’s the 1-1 pitch...”) 162 nights a year for the last 15 years. Never used all of it. Never used most of it. But this is the sort of information I always wanted to have at the ready because I think it’s interesting, and I think most people who are following the team would find a lot of it interesting.
And you’re right, it rarely comes from other writers because their priority is always what’s directly in front of them at that moment rather than looking at the bigger picture. And it would never come from the club.
You’ll remember a time when most papers in ML markets had a Sunday notes column that would be similar to this or to the MLB Roundup I wrote about a week ago. Peter Gammons invented the Sunday baseball column in Boston decades ago around the same time Will McDonough introduced the concept to the NFL, also at the Boston Globe.
Even though it doesn’t really exist anymore, I think there’s definitely a place for that on the local and national level.
One thing I would caution about one-run records: they tend to even out. Although they never did for the Marlins the last few years. They’ll hope that’s the case again, but in the positive sense, this season.
I’ve talked about this on the radio in the past. I tend to believe close games are lost more often than they’re won. What I mean by that a bad team will find a way to blow a close game late more often than a good team will simply wrestle away the victory.
A base-running mistake, a defensive miscue, failing to get a man in from third with less than 2 outs, giving away extra outs. Those are the kind of mistakes bad teams tend to make when the pressure gets ramped up.
To their credit, the Marlins haven’t been making those mistakes to this point this season.
So... when can we start to believe? The numbers seem like there’s a great deal of “luck” so far, but that being said it’s been “luck” against good teams with the best part of our team the pitching staff, hobbled with injuries. If they’re 5-6 above .500 after May can we start getting excited?
Not sure how to answer that. Belief is a personal choice.
But I’ll say that 1) It’s a long season, and we’re just 1/5 of the way in and 2) My perception of the team hasn’t changed over the first month.
Barring cataclysmic injuries and/or collapse, are they better over 162 than any of the Braves, Mets and Phillies?
I would say no.
They certainly benefit from 18 fewer games against those teams. As I point out, they don’t play them at all for 8 weeks after this series with Atlanta.
Is the offense significantly better than in the last 5 years? Relative to the rest of the majors, the numbers through April say that it’s not.
Could that change? Yes. Could some guys heat up? Sure. There’s a lot of baseball still to be played.
Is their pitching staff deep enough? I’d be concerned about that. They replaced Cueto with Garrett, who I thought had earned the shot to be the full-time #5 anyway. I wouldn’t have signed Cueto. I’d have rather used that money on another proven bat. They don’t seem to have a reliable replacement for Rogers, who himself is far from proven. What happens if someone else goes on the IL? Based on Luzardo’s history and with Sandy already a bit dinged up (and working on a run of innings without an IL stint over the last several years that’s virtually unprecedented in today’s MLB), it’s certainly possible.
Could they bring up prospects to insert into the rotation at some point? Sure. And I expect they will. But if you’re counting on multiple starters who have never thrown a pitch in the big leagues, that’s quite risky. Look at the inconsistency and growing pains virtually every young pitcher goes through, in some cases over multiple seasons. Think back to early Sandy, for example. Consider what Cabrera has dealt with over parts of 3 ML seasons now.
Even if Eury Perez, at 20, comes up and is as good as people hope, he’s thrown 78 and 77 innings in his 2 previous minor league seasons. Can you count on him to excel at the ML level in August and September when those innings are exponentially harder than any innings he’s thrown to this point in his career (all at AA or below)? Would they even push him? Can he throw 150 combined innings between the minors and majors AND stay healthy and effective? Seems like that’s asking a lot.
Arraez has been brilliant, but they miss the reliability of Pablo Lopez in the rotation. No, he’s not Gerrit Cole, but you know what you’re going to get from him, and that’s worth a lot. 6-7 solid innings every 5 days is worth a lot.
Other than Arraez, the back end of the bullpen has been the bright spot so far. That’s how they’ve locked down close games. They certainly can’t afford any hiccups there.
If they’re in the hunt, how aggressive will the Marlins be at the deadline? Are they willing to trade prospects? Are they willing to take on a contract? Trades are critical because it’s hard to attract in-demand free agents here with the low payroll and the club’s reputation among players around the league. Time will tell.
We’ll see. While I point out the number of games they’ve played against teams with winning records so far, that number may be a bit inflated if we’re being honest. Do most expect the Cubs and D-Backs to stay above .500? The Cubs, maybe.
One thing they have going for them, if you’re thinking about the Wild Card (beyond fewer games against the Braves, Mets and Phillies) is the dreadful start the Cardinals are off to and the slower than anticipated starts of the Padres and Dodgers (although SD and LA are heating up lately). That’s something to keep an eye on. I think San Diego will be fine. I’m pretty sure the Dodgers will find a way even though this looks like their weakest team in the last decade. There ought to be concern about the Cardinals, especially with the Brewers playing better than most anticipated. I don’t see the Pirates sustaining this start, but they’re going to win more games than anyone anticipated.
The Mets and Phillies have yet to get untracked, but the Mets are about to get Scherzer and Verlander back, and Harper is returning to the Phils today.
That’s all a long way of saying, there’s a reason why they play the games. If the Marlins can improve or sustain this over 6 months, they will have earned it. Maybe they will. Maybe they won’t. That’s why we tune in.
There is definitely a place for this information that the vast majority of fans would like to have.
I hope your information is picked up and broadly disseminated.
Hoping to grow this into something that will continue to be more and more widely disseminated straight from the source. Off to a great start one month in. Just need to keep spreading the word. Appreciate your support, Bob!
Great Analysis Glenn. There isn't anyone that I am aware of in the Press that has put together stats
like this pertaining to the Marlins. and made the data public.
Thanks, Bob.
The funny thing is, this is just a small percentage of the work I would do on both teams to try to offer context and perspective (and not just “here’s the 1-1 pitch...”) 162 nights a year for the last 15 years. Never used all of it. Never used most of it. But this is the sort of information I always wanted to have at the ready because I think it’s interesting, and I think most people who are following the team would find a lot of it interesting.
And you’re right, it rarely comes from other writers because their priority is always what’s directly in front of them at that moment rather than looking at the bigger picture. And it would never come from the club.
You’ll remember a time when most papers in ML markets had a Sunday notes column that would be similar to this or to the MLB Roundup I wrote about a week ago. Peter Gammons invented the Sunday baseball column in Boston decades ago around the same time Will McDonough introduced the concept to the NFL, also at the Boston Globe.
Even though it doesn’t really exist anymore, I think there’s definitely a place for that on the local and national level.
Good Month, I expected worst, one run game W is very important and pending subject previous seasons. Well see this month.
One thing I would caution about one-run records: they tend to even out. Although they never did for the Marlins the last few years. They’ll hope that’s the case again, but in the positive sense, this season.
I’ve talked about this on the radio in the past. I tend to believe close games are lost more often than they’re won. What I mean by that a bad team will find a way to blow a close game late more often than a good team will simply wrestle away the victory.
A base-running mistake, a defensive miscue, failing to get a man in from third with less than 2 outs, giving away extra outs. Those are the kind of mistakes bad teams tend to make when the pressure gets ramped up.
To their credit, the Marlins haven’t been making those mistakes to this point this season.
Totally Agree
So... when can we start to believe? The numbers seem like there’s a great deal of “luck” so far, but that being said it’s been “luck” against good teams with the best part of our team the pitching staff, hobbled with injuries. If they’re 5-6 above .500 after May can we start getting excited?
Not sure how to answer that. Belief is a personal choice.
But I’ll say that 1) It’s a long season, and we’re just 1/5 of the way in and 2) My perception of the team hasn’t changed over the first month.
Barring cataclysmic injuries and/or collapse, are they better over 162 than any of the Braves, Mets and Phillies?
I would say no.
They certainly benefit from 18 fewer games against those teams. As I point out, they don’t play them at all for 8 weeks after this series with Atlanta.
Is the offense significantly better than in the last 5 years? Relative to the rest of the majors, the numbers through April say that it’s not.
Could that change? Yes. Could some guys heat up? Sure. There’s a lot of baseball still to be played.
Is their pitching staff deep enough? I’d be concerned about that. They replaced Cueto with Garrett, who I thought had earned the shot to be the full-time #5 anyway. I wouldn’t have signed Cueto. I’d have rather used that money on another proven bat. They don’t seem to have a reliable replacement for Rogers, who himself is far from proven. What happens if someone else goes on the IL? Based on Luzardo’s history and with Sandy already a bit dinged up (and working on a run of innings without an IL stint over the last several years that’s virtually unprecedented in today’s MLB), it’s certainly possible.
Could they bring up prospects to insert into the rotation at some point? Sure. And I expect they will. But if you’re counting on multiple starters who have never thrown a pitch in the big leagues, that’s quite risky. Look at the inconsistency and growing pains virtually every young pitcher goes through, in some cases over multiple seasons. Think back to early Sandy, for example. Consider what Cabrera has dealt with over parts of 3 ML seasons now.
Even if Eury Perez, at 20, comes up and is as good as people hope, he’s thrown 78 and 77 innings in his 2 previous minor league seasons. Can you count on him to excel at the ML level in August and September when those innings are exponentially harder than any innings he’s thrown to this point in his career (all at AA or below)? Would they even push him? Can he throw 150 combined innings between the minors and majors AND stay healthy and effective? Seems like that’s asking a lot.
Arraez has been brilliant, but they miss the reliability of Pablo Lopez in the rotation. No, he’s not Gerrit Cole, but you know what you’re going to get from him, and that’s worth a lot. 6-7 solid innings every 5 days is worth a lot.
Other than Arraez, the back end of the bullpen has been the bright spot so far. That’s how they’ve locked down close games. They certainly can’t afford any hiccups there.
If they’re in the hunt, how aggressive will the Marlins be at the deadline? Are they willing to trade prospects? Are they willing to take on a contract? Trades are critical because it’s hard to attract in-demand free agents here with the low payroll and the club’s reputation among players around the league. Time will tell.
We’ll see. While I point out the number of games they’ve played against teams with winning records so far, that number may be a bit inflated if we’re being honest. Do most expect the Cubs and D-Backs to stay above .500? The Cubs, maybe.
One thing they have going for them, if you’re thinking about the Wild Card (beyond fewer games against the Braves, Mets and Phillies) is the dreadful start the Cardinals are off to and the slower than anticipated starts of the Padres and Dodgers (although SD and LA are heating up lately). That’s something to keep an eye on. I think San Diego will be fine. I’m pretty sure the Dodgers will find a way even though this looks like their weakest team in the last decade. There ought to be concern about the Cardinals, especially with the Brewers playing better than most anticipated. I don’t see the Pirates sustaining this start, but they’re going to win more games than anyone anticipated.
The Mets and Phillies have yet to get untracked, but the Mets are about to get Scherzer and Verlander back, and Harper is returning to the Phils today.
That’s all a long way of saying, there’s a reason why they play the games. If the Marlins can improve or sustain this over 6 months, they will have earned it. Maybe they will. Maybe they won’t. That’s why we tune in.