Tomahawk chopped

The Marlins have a serious Braves problem

If you’re a South Florida sports fan of a certain age, you may remember the Dolphins enjoying a perfect decade against the Bills in the 1970’s.

From 1970-79, Miami went 20-0 and outscored Buffalo by a nearly 2-1 margin in the most dominant decade any NFL team has ever had against a single opponent.

I hadn’t thought about Bob Griese and Larry Csonka running roughshod over Joe Ferguson and O.J. Simpson in a while. Then the Marlins and Braves got together for the first time in 2023 this week.

Here we go again.

The Marlins arrived in Atlanta Monday riding high. They’d won 4 straight series and 8 of their previous 11 games.

On the other side, after a torrid start, the first-place Braves had dropped 4 in a row and had just been swept 3 straight at home by the Astros.

2 games into this 4-game series, the Braves are back on track, and it’s déjà vu all over again for the Marlins.

Atlanta has outscored the Marlins 18-4 in taking the first 2 games of the series. Many would suggest order has been restored in the universe.

No NL East team has handled the Marlins better all-time than the Braves. Miami’s .400 winning percentage against Atlanta in 502 games over 31 seasons is its 4th-worst against any foe and 2nd worst against an NL club.

Marlins Lowest All-Time Regular Season Winning Pct. by Opponent

.400    Braves (502 games)

.393     Cardinals (211 games)

.368     Angels (19 games)

.295     Red Sox (44 games)

Marlins All-Time Regular Season Winning Pct. vs. Current NL East Opponents

.507     Expos/Nationals

.462     Mets

.456     Phillies

.400     Braves

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Former manager Don Mattingly talked about it a lot in recent years. If the Marlins are to ever make a legitimate move toward the top of the NL East, the Braves are the ultimate hurdle they’re going to have to clear.

While the Mets and Phillies have had good years, and both should be formidable over the long haul in 2023, the Braves are the undisputed standard bearers in the division.

Atlanta has won the East each of the last 5 seasons and 20 times since emerging as the dominant force in the NL for the last 3 decades-plus in 1991.

Between this week and next, the Marlins get 7 chances in the span of 10 games to attempt to show 2023 will be different.

So far…not so much.

Historically and in recent years, the Braves have been Miami’s ultimate nemesis.

The Marlins have lost their last 8 season series against the Braves, going 51-93 (.354) against Atlanta since the start of the 2015 season. In that span, only 3 ML teams have beaten a single opponent more often than the Braves have dispatched the Marlins. The Dodgers have 97 victories over the Padres. The Guardians have 94 wins against the Tigers. And the Astros have 94 wins against the Mariners.

Going back to 2010, the Marlins have only one season series win in 13 tries against the Braves, taking 10 of 19 in 2014.

Since the beginning of 2018, the Braves are 72-35 against the Marlins in the regular season (and 3-0 against Miami in the 2020 NLDS). In that span, only one ML club has beaten a single opponent more often than the Braves have taken down the Marlins. The Guardians have 73 wins against the Tigers.

And for the Marlins, it’s been particularly ugly at Truist Park, the home of the Braves since 2017.

Over 31 NL seasons, the Marlins have played at least one regular season game in 51 different ballparks. Their .314 winning percentage at Truist Park is their 5^th-worst at any park. But of the 4 parks where they’ve won a lower percentage of games, they’ve only played more than 8 games in one (Fenway Park), and only 2 of the 4 are currently in use (Fenway and Angel Stadium).

Marlins Lowest All-Time Regular Season Winning Pct. by Ballpark

.314 (17-39) at Truist Park in Atlanta (2017- )

.250 (2-6) at old Yankee Stadium (1998-2006)

.250 (2-6) at Angel Stadium (2005- )

.250 (1-3) at Sahlen Field in Buffalo (Blue Jays, 2020-21)

.240 (6-19) at Fenway Park (1997- )

And it’s not just the losses. It’s the way they’ve lost. Of the Marlins’ 39 losses at Truist Park, 12 have been in walk-off fashion, including 5 in 2017. That season, the Braves walked off the Marlins in back-to-back games in June and 3 times in a 4-game series in September.

Another dozen of the Braves’ wins against Miami at Truist Park have been by 5 or more runs, including Monday night’s 11-0 Atlanta victory in the series opener. Of course that game pales in comparison to the 29-9 whooping the Braves put on the Marlins in their new Cobb County home in 2020.

With all that history, tonight feels like an important night to make a stand for the Marlins. With their Cy Young ace Sandy Alcantara scheduled to start barring a medical setback, the Marlins need to find a way to snatch a win. Scratched from a start Saturday in Cleveland due to right biceps tendinitis, and having posted a 5.47 ERA his first 4 times out, the Marlins would need a healthy Sandy to assert himself tonight no matter who they’re playing.

But because it’s the Braves, Sandy and the Marlins really need to find a way to begin to rewrite their painful history.