Continuing the legacy
In his 5th major league season, Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez looks to follow in the footsteps of 3 of the greatest hitters the game has seen
In an era in which exit velocity and launch angle are king and swing-and-miss rules the world, the Marlins’ best hitter is a throwback.
Watching Luis Arraez during his first 2 weeks in Miami, I can’t help but think about Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn and Ichiro and how Arraez, to this point in his young career, is carrying on the tradition of these all-time greats at a time when their styles harken back to a bygone era.
That sweet left-handed stroke. Elite bat-to-ball skills and a keen eye for the strike zone, leading to more walks than strikeouts. The ability to use the whole field.
And hit after hit after hit.
Those 3 hitting icons, all members of the 3,000-hit fraternity, combined for 17 batting titles and 43 trips to the All-Star Game. And with Arraez earning both honors for the first time last season in his final year as a Minnesota Twin, it’s enticing to think about him carrying on this legacy that spans a remarkable timeline of more than a half century.
The Hall of Fame Twin and Angel Carew amassed 3,053 hits, 7 batting crowns and 18 All-Star nods from 1967-85.
Gwynn, who often talked about his admiration for Carew, briefly overlapped in the majors with the 1977 AL MVP. Tony played from 1982-2001, and in his 20 seasons with the Padres, the late Hall of Famer collected 3,141 hits, led the NL in batting a record-tying 8 times and was chosen to 15 All-Star teams.
Gwynn’s final season in the majors was Ichiro’s first. After 9 years in Japan, Ichiro played 19 big league seasons with the Mariners, Yankees and Marlins from 2001-19. He retired with 3,089 major league hits, a pair of batting titles and 10 All-Star selections.
Arraez debuted in 2019, the year in which Ichiro played the final 2 games of his illustrious career that in 2025 will earn him first-ballot election to Cooperstown.
Carew passed the baton to Gwynn. Gwynn handed it to Ichiro. Now it’s Arraez’s turn to potentially carry on this uninterrupted legacy of artistry at the plate that began with Carew’s debut in 1967
Carew was a mentor to Arraez during the 26-year-old’s 4 seasons with the Twins, which were capped off by Arraez earning the Rod Carew Award as the American League’s batting champion in 2022.
Ichiro last year called Arraez his favorite active left-handed hitter to watch and sought him out to speak when the Twins visited Seattle.
But it’s the Gwynn comparison that’s most striking to me, having worked closely with Mr. Padre during my years in San Diego.
Let’s start by looking at the numbers from Gwynn’s first 4 seasons upon debuting at the age of 22 years and 71 days in 1982 and those from Arraez’s first 4 seasons plus the beginning of 2023, since he debuted in 2019 at the age of 22 years and 39 days, 32 days younger than Gwynn was when he played his first game.
The batting averages, on-base percentages, slugging percentages, OPS and OPS+ are remarkably similar. Arraez walks at a higher rate. Gwynn struck out at a lower rate, but both had more walks than K’s.
Now, take a look at their swings side-by-side, courtesy of Grunt Baseball.
There’s certainly no guarantee Arraez can maintain this level of success for 2 decades and ultimately have the same type of career as these 3 legends. But, particularly relative to the era in which he plays, Arraez’s skillset is as unique as it is remarkable.
Arraez’s .320 career batting average is highest among all active major leaguers with at least 1,500 lifetime plate appearances and is 71 points better than the overall major league average of .249 in that span.
The list of active career .300 hitters (min. 1,500 PA) contains only 6 names:
Luis Arraez .320
Miguel Cabrera .308
Jose Altuve .307
Jeff McNeil .306
Mike Trout .303
Trea Turner .302
Arraez leads active major leaguers with 10.9 at-bats for every strikeout in his career, with only David Fletcher of the Angels (9.6) and Michael Brantley of the Astros (8.4) even within 2.5 at-bats. Since Arraez debuted in 2019, the average major leaguer has struck out once every 3.9 at-bats.
His 8.3% career K rate, best among active players, is roughly 1/3 the major league average of 22.9% over the last 5 seasons.
Arraez makes contact on 92.5% of his career swings, best among active players. That includes a 94.6% zone contact rate, 2nd to only Fletcher (95.4%). While this data isn’t available for the full careers of Carew and Gwynn, Ichiro—by comparison—had an 88.9% career contact rate and a 93.4% contact rate on pitches in the zone.
Acquired by the Marlins in exchange for Pablo Lopez and prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio in January, Arraez so far this season has picked up where he left off with the Twins.
A .331 hitter in 369 minor league games, he’s hit at every stop since debuting with a .348 average at age 17 in the Dominican Summer League in 2014. He hit .309 in the Gulf Coast League in 2015 and .347 at Single-A Cedar Rapids in 2016. Promoted to high-A Fort Myers in 2017, Arraez started with 5 hits in 13 at-bats before tearing his ACL and missing the remainder of the year. He came back to hit .310 in Single-A at Fort Myers and at Double-A Chattanooga in 2018 and .344 at Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Rochester in 2019 to earn a promotion to the big leagues. There, he put up a .334 average in his 92-game debut. Knee problems limited Arraez to 32 games with Minnesota in the abbreviated 2020 season, when he hit .321. He “slumped” to .294 in 2021 before his .316 average in 2022 earned Arraez the AL batting title.
In his first 13 games with the Marlins, he’s hit .500 in 46 at-bats. He’s reached base at a .558 clip with 6 walks and only 4 strikeouts in his first 52 plate appearances.
Arraez makes $6.1 million through arbitration in 2023, and is under club control for 2024 and 2025. Early indications are the Marlins acquired a long-term lineup staple, although he didn’t come cheap with Lopez, Salas and Chourio going to the Twins.
But while Arraez has the potential to be a generational hitter, remember that—for all their Hall of Fame greatness—Carew, Gwynn and Ichiro were not hitters who carried a lineup on their back.
Carew maxed out at 14 homers in a season and drove in 100 once, topping 70 RBI only 3 times. Gwynn set personal bests with 17 homers and 119 RBI in 1997, his age 37 season and one of only 2 years in which he knocked in more than 72. Ichiro never hit more than 15 homers or drove in more than 69 runs.
Carew played in October 4 times and never reached the World Series. Gwynn’s Padres teams qualified for the postseason 3 times, and he excelled in a losing effort in 2 World Series appearances in 1984 and 1998. Ichiro reached the playoffs twice, once with the Mariners and once with the Yankees, and he never played in the Fall Classic.
Arraez is undoubtedly a piece. He’s a big piece. But in 402 major league games, he’s hit only 15 homers and driven in only 137.
Through 13 games this year, he leads the major leagues in hits and times on base, but with limited production in front of him so far, he’s tied for 121st in the majors with only 5 RBI. With limited production behind him so far, he’s tied for 72nd in MLB with only 7 runs scored.
To get the most out of this potentially generational talent, the Marlins still need significantly more production in the lineup around him. Without men on base in front of him and run producers to bring him home behind him, Arraez’s brilliance could go to waste.
Big Names Mr.Padre, Ichiro,Carew but Arraez's start is incredible so far🔥
Love when it's Arraez's turn to bat. He has also played a fine second base, as well.