Want to give it one last shot?
If the Marlins are still feeling all-in, they can act boldly in the next 2 days
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The Marlins are a major league-worst 13-27 since the All-Star break, winning only 3 of the 13 series they’ve played in the 2nd half. They’ve scored 17 runs in their last 9 games and were plastered by the intra-state rival Rays, 11-2, last night, their 9th loss in their last dozen games.
And yet, with 30 games to play, they’re only 3 games out of the 3rd National League Wild Card spot. They’d need to jump 3 teams to get it, but—still—they will at least enter the final month with a chance to play what you can at least argue is meaningful September baseball for the first time in a full season since 2016, when they were 4 games out of a Wild Card spot with 11 to play, days before the death of Jose Fernandez.
Would you bet on the now 66-66 Marlins going 20-10 the rest of the way, a conservative guess at what they might need to do the rest of the way to sneak into the postseason?
Would you bet on that based on the way they’ve played over the last 6 weeks, the way they’re playing right now and the schedule that lies ahead?
More importantly, would owner Bruce Sherman and General Manager Kim Ng bet on it?
We’ll know in less than 48 hours.
As part of yesterday’s Hey, Geff! mailbag, I answered a question about the elimination of the August waiver trades that used to be common every season. While those post-deadline deals were eliminated in 2019, nothing stops teams from placing players on waivers, giving other clubs the opportunity to claim the player and his contract if the claiming team is willing to pay whatever remains on the player’s contract.
With tomorrow being the deadline for players to be in an organization to be eligible for post-season rosters, teams that are hopelessly out of contention have been placing players on waivers in recent days. And the names of some of those players available are beginning to trickle out.
If these players are claimed, teams like the Yankees, Angels and White Sox can save some money over the final month. And the claiming teams are basically buying a lottery ticket, but they’re expending money and only money. They’re not trading talent away.
Sherman and Ng spoke before the deadline about being prepared to take on payroll in pursuit of a playoff spot. And they did with the acquisitions of David Robertson, Josh Bell and Jake Burger.
Are they willing to spend some more? Because, if they are, the Marlins are in prime position to pounce.
When a player is placed on waivers, teams have the chance to claim based on the reverse order of the standings. For example, the Athletics, with Baseball’s worst record, have the first shot at any player on waivers. Then the Royals, the Rockies, the White Sox and so on. The Braves, who have the best record in MLB would only have a shot at a player on waivers only after each of the other 29 clubs would have passed.
And that’s why the Marlins are uniquely positioned to take advantage if they want to. Of the 18 AL and NL teams that are currently within 6 games of a playoff spot, the Marlins have the worst record.
Yes, there are a dozen non-contenders who could put in a claim before Miami. While not impossible, that is, however, unlikely.
The Marlins would have the first shot at any player on waivers of any team that begins the day within 6 games of a playoff position.
All they would need to do is be willing to pay that player (or those players’) salary for the final month of the season.
Among the players who have reportedly been placed on waivers in recent days…
Would veteran righthander Lucas Giolito improve the Marlins’ chances in the 5th spot in the rotation the rest of the way over a bullpen day, Johnny Cueto when he returns from illness or potentially Edward Cabrera if he were brought back from Triple-A?
Giolito was 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA in 21 starts for the White Sox before he was dealt to the Angels at the deadline. He has been terrible in Anaheim (1-5, 6.89 in 6 starts). But overall this season, he’s averaged 9.7 strikeouts per 9 innings, with opponents hitting just .238 with a .313 on-base-percentage.
He’d be owed approximately $1.8 million the rest of the way.
What about Angels relievers Matt Moore or Reynaldo Lopez.
Moore, a lefty, is 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 40 appearances with 47 strikeouts and only 12 walks in 43 innings. Opponents are hitting just .196 with a .262 OBP and a .353 slugging percentage. He’s held righthanders to a .184 average and a .538 OPS. He’s owed approximately $1.2 million the rest of the way.
The righthander Lopez, who was acquired by the Angels with Giolito in a deadline swap with the White Sox, has excelled since the trade. He has 2 saves and a 2.31 ERA in 12 games, striking out 19 in 11 2/3 innings. Overall this season, he’s 2-7 with 6 saves and a 3.86 ERA in 55 games. He’s owed approximately $650,000 over the final month.
Would some muscle from a good defensive right fielder be of interest to you down the stretch? Say hello to the Angels’ Hunter Renfroe, who’s averaged 29 homers over the last 5 full (non-Covid) seasons and has 30 doubles, 18 homers and 52 RBI, while hitting just .237 and striking out a lot for Los Angeles this season.
It’s at least worth noting that Jake Burger was hitting .214 and striking out a lot when the Marlins brought him in August 1. and Josh Bell was hitting .233 and striking out a lot when the Marlins brought him in August 1. As bad as things have been lately, can you imagine what the Marlins’ lineup would have looked like without those 2 over the last month?
Renfroe is owed about $1.9 million the rest of the way.
Randal Grichuk plays all 3 outfield positions. He’s struggled since being dealt from the Rockies to the Angels at the deadline, but overall in 2023, he’s batting .267 with a .776 OPS, 23 doubles, 2 triples, 12 homers and 35 RBI. He’s due a little more than $1.5 million the rest of 2023.
Those are just some of the Angels who are reportedly available via waivers.
I can’t imagine the Marlins having interest in 36-year-old righthander Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled to a 3-8 record with an unsightly 6.80 ERA in 20 starts. His strikeout rate is his lowest in a decade, but he’s reportedly on waivers and available to anyone willing to pay him about $2.3 million for the final month.
What about White Sox righthander Mike Clevinger? He’s 6-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 18 starts for an awful Chicago club this season. He’s owed about $1.3 million for the remainder of this season, but has a $12 million option or a $4 million buyout for 2024.
Clevinger would only make sense to a club that is willing to guarantee him the $12 million next year. Otherwise, you’d owe him the rest of his 2023 salary plus the buyout, meaning he’d get $5.3 million for one month in 2023.
It’s been a rough year for Yankees center fielder Harrison Bader, a former Gold Glove winner. Bader, who missed significant time earlier in the year with a hamstring strain hasn’t hit much, but he offers speed (16 steals in 83 games) and defense to any team willing to eat what remains of his 2023 salary, a little less than $800,000.
Those are just some of the names that have been reported to be on waivers. There’ll be more between now and the end of the day tomorrow.
Do you think the Marlins still have a pulse? How much do you believe in this club with 30 games to go?
If the owner and general manager continue to believe this team has what it takes to reach October and even make a run, they can make a powerful statement in the next 2 days.
Among the players reportedly available via waivers, who would you like to see the Marlins claim? Comment below.
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Reynaldo López is the one no-brainer when factoring both his salary and recent performance. The team tried to improve the righty bullpen situation at the deadline. Hasn't worked out as hoped. Keep trying.
Matt Moore. Solid stats for the lefty
reliever. We could certainly use some offense, but none of the names
listed excite me very much.