The countdown is on

With the trade deadline only 6 days away and NL Wild Card spots up for grabs, the stakes are high for Kim Ng and the Marlins

You hear it every spring: The baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. And it’s true. But it’s not spring anymore.

Now it’s a sprint.

For the Marlins, the grueling 162-game test of endurance now comes down to a 60-game dash to the finish line. And as the club, reeling with losses in 9 of 10 since the All-Star break, looks to reach the playoffs in a full season for just the 3rd time in 31 National League seasons by winning one of 3 available NL Wild Card spots, the challenge is easily explained.

The Marlins have to outplay at least 2 of the 4 clubs they’re essentially neck-and-neck with the rest of the way—the Reds or Brewers (depending on who wins the NL Central), the D-Backs, the Giants and the Phillies. And they need to avoid being caught from behind by the Cubs, the Padres and a couple of others praying for a late-season miracle.

Let’s arbitrarily say it will take 87 wins to earn a Wild Card spot. That means the 54-48 Marlins will need to go 33-27 (.550) the rest of the way.

I wrote Thursday about the challenging road that lies ahead.

Beginning July 31 (next Monday), the Marlins play 22 straight against a murderer’s row: 4 against the streaking Phillies; 3 against the AL West-leading Rangers; 3 against the young, dynamic Reds; 3 against the Yankees; 3 against the defending champion Astros; 3 against the NL West-leading Dodgers; and 3 against the big-spending Padres.

After a brief respite of 7 games against the lowly Nationals and 2 against the struggling (but still very dangerous) Rays, they’ll then play 16 of their next 19 against teams that are currently in playoff position: 3 more against the scalding-hot Dodgers, 3 against the Wild Card Phillies, 7 against the NL Central-leading Brewers and 3 against the ML-best Braves.

From July 31 through September 24, they’ll play 32 of 50 games against teams that are currently in playoff position.

It’s a stretch every bit as challenging as their 50 games from May 5-June 29 that I started talking about April 21 were a lay-up. They went 32-18 in that span. They’re now (22-30) outside of those 7 weeks.

To get to 87 wins, they’re going to have to play .550 ball against a difficult schedule. Of course, winning more than 87 games improves their chances of not just making the playoffs but earning a higher Wild Card seed. Why does that matter? Because the #1 Wild Card team hosts the entire best-of-3 Wild Card series against the #2 Wild Card team. Meanwhile, the #3 Wild Card team plays the Wild Card round on the road against the division champ that finishes with the worst record (likely to be the NL Central winner).

You want home games and a weaker opponent? Be the Wild Card team with the best record.

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SO HOW DO THE MARLINS GET THERE?

The path to October has undoubtedly become a lot tougher with the club’s 1-9 start to the second half that includes 3 losses to the Cardinals, who have been one of MLB’s biggest disappointments in 2023, 2 to the NL-worst Rockies and last night’s setback against the Rays, who had dropped 14 of their previous 18 games to lose their season-long stranglehold on first place in the AL East.

To come out on top in a Wild Card race that’s likely to go down to the wire, a pursuit in which every single win the rest of the way matters, the Marlins—who have seemingly sprung several leaks of late—cannot afford to come out of the trade deadline (now only 6 days away, at 6 p.m. Tuesday) without some impact reinforcements.

I’m not confident they’ll do it, but I’ve written extensively about my belief the Marlins must acquire at least one rotation upgrade. The reasons I cited more than 3 weeks ago have played out in real time since.

• Sandy Alcantara has not been a reliable ace in 2023, and he’s allowed 24 hits— including 4 home runs—in 3 starts (2 losses and a no-decision) since I wrote that.

• As brilliant as he’s been at age 20, Eury Perez is facing stiff innings restrictions, and he’s been sent to the minor leagues because of those restrictions since I wrote that, leaving the Marlins without the best starter they’ve had this year.

• Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett have zoomed past their previous big league season-highs in innings pitched. While Luzardo has continued to pitch well to this point—and is, in fact, the active Marlins starter in whom I currently have the most faith—Garrett seems to have hit a wall with a 9.24 ERA in 3 starts since I wrote that. In that span, he’s allowed 13 runs on 19 hits, including 4 homers, in 12 2/3 innings. Opponents are batting .333 with a 1.033 OPS.

• Trevor Rogers remains on the IL with no timetable for his return. The lefty, who hasn’t thrown a big league pitch since April 21, is currently on “no-throw” restrictions in Jupiter. Expecting him to contribute to a playoff push in a meaningful way seems like a fool’s errand.

• Edward Cabrera has finally returned from a shoulder impingement that cost him a month. He made his 2nd post-IL start last night against the Rays and was lifted after 53 pitches in 2 innings, suffering the loss and seeing his season ERA inflate to 4.54 through 16 starts. Are you willing to hang your hat on him in a pennant race?

• After putting up alarming numbers on a minor league rehab stint, veteran Johnny Cueto pitched well Saturday against the Rockies in his first start since the opening week of the season. The Marlins desperately need the 37-year-old to shoulder a heavy load the rest of the way. Do you feel great about that? I don’t.

• As for Plan Bs in the event of further injuries, whether it’s been Bryan Hoeing or bullpen days, it doesn’t add up to a formula that navigates the minefield of a challenging schedule the rest of the way and gets you to the playoffs. In 9 Hoeing/bullpen starts, the Marlins are a respectable 5-4, but those pitchers have combined to go 0-3 with a 6.67 ERA.

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With the Marlins’ rotation in the bottom half of MLB in innings pitched this season, some members of the bullpen have, predictably, wilted from overuse as the summer has rolled on. That’s another argument to bolster the rotation while it also informs that reinforcement for the relief corps is never a bad idea.

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And finally, this team needs more offense. Despite a mid-season surge during which the Marlins performed as a league-average or even slightly better-than-league-average unit for a spell (remember who the competition was), this team still ranks last in the NL and 27th out of 30 ML clubs in runs per game, ahead of only the Tigers and the historically bad Royals and Athletics. The Marlins are last in the NL and tied for 28th in home runs, ahead of only the Guardians.

They have Luis Arraez hitting for a high average and getting on base and Jorge Soler hitting home runs, although Arraez has hit .300 with a .339 OBP in his last 25 games after batting .402 with a .452 OBP in his first 71 while Soler has managed only 2 home runs in 19 July contests.

But even if those 2 were at their best, they need more help than they’ve gotten on a regular basis this season.

The Marlins rank 24th or lower in Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Average by Position at 5 of the 9 offensive positions: third base (where they’re dead last), catcher and all 3 outfield spots.

The Marlins need more offense.

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While their recent slide has shined a bright spotlight on the team’s shortcomings, it has also put the Marlins in a precarious spot in which they cannot afford to sell out entirely to bring in whatever they think will get them over the hump in 2023 because that outcome is far less certain than it may have previously seemed.

Any moves the Marlins make now would have to be made, in my opinion, with one eye on 2023 but the other on 2024. Overpaying for short-term help like players on expiring contracts suddenly seems like a foolish proposition. If the Marlins are to invest significant prospect or financial capital into upgrades between now and the deadline, the return can’t be simply for 50-something games. The Marlins need to acquire controllable assets that can be reasonably expected to help in 2024 considering the hit their 2023 playoff hopes have taken during this disastrous spell since the break.

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And that brings me back to something I wrote July 5, when the Marlins were flying high, a season-best 14 games over .500. At that time, I explained why they shouldn’t wait 4 weeks to act. Yes, the deadline was nearly a month away, but a starting pitcher brought in in early July (rather than in early August) could have given the Marlins 4 starts before the deadline. A position player brought in at that time could have given the Marlins 75 at-bats before the deadline.

I asked then how big a difference those 4 starts and those 75 at-bats could make in an air-tight playoff race. I ask today how big a difference those 4 starts and those 75 at-bats could have made over the last 3 weeks, when the Marlins have gone 3-11.

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When the Marlins reached the All-Star break, they had a 74.5 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. This morning, those odds stand at 44.1 percent.

How the Marlins handle the trade deadline has grown much more complicated over the last couple of weeks. So has their path to the playoffs.

In both cases, the clock is ticking. Time is running out.

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