Why wait?
The Marlins know they'll be deadline buyers. So why wait to act?
I want to take that a step further and say that, while the deadline is 27 days away, there’s no reason the Marlins have to wait until the last minute to make their moves. In fact, they should act aggressively to improve their roster sooner rather than later.
As of today, the Marlins have 20 games to play before August 1. A pitcher acquired in the next few days could make 4 starts before the deadline. A position player acquired in the next few days could have 75 or more at-bats before the deadline.
If you know what you need—and my hope is Kim Ng and the Marlins do by this point—why not beat the rush and make a move as soon as possible?
Why the rush? Here’s why:
After last weekend’s drubbing in Atlanta, it’s clear the Marlins’ potential path to the playoffs would be as one of the 3 NL Wild Card teams. Through last night’s action, the Marlins are the proud owners of the #1 Wild Card spot. They’re 2 games ahead of the Dodgers and 3 1/2 games ahead of the Phillies, Brewers and Giants. Unless any of those teams can overtake their current division leaders, only 3 of the 5 can make the playoffs. And only one would have home-field advantage in the Wild Card series.
Under the new playoff format introduced in 2022, the #1 Wild Card team (the NL’s #4 seed behind the 3 division champions) hosts the entire best-of-3 Wild Card series against the #2 Wild Card team (the #5 seed). If you’re the #2 or #3 Wild Card team, you play your entire Wild Card series on the road, in which case it’s possible you could be eliminated from the playoffs without ever hosting a single post-season game in your home ballpark.
Any team would like home-field advantage in that Wild Card series from a competitive standpoint, but—organizationally—as the Marlins try to build fan enthusiasm, they need home playoff games to create an atmosphere no fan has experienced at a Marlins game in 12 seasons at loanDepot park. Home playoff games could be a huge building block for the future of fan support, and you know the Marlins will soon start promoting that if you purchase a 2024 season ticket plan, you’ll have priority access to post-season tickets in 2023.
As an aside, that strategy has never worked for this franchise, and I wouldn’t fall for it this time either if I were you.
In the final years at the football stadium, they told you buying season tickets in 2010 or 2011 would put you first in line for seats at the new ballpark. Has anyone who didn’t buy a season ticket in 2010 or 2011 ever had trouble getting a ticket at the new ballpark?
In 2016 and 2017, they told you that buying season tickets would give you priority access to tickets to the 2017 All-Star Game and the related events in Miami. I’ve never talked with anyone who told me or she he wanted to go the All-Star Game but couldn’t get a ticket.
Last year, they tried to get you to buy season tickets in exchange for priority access to World Baseball Classic games at loanDepot. Again, no one bought new season tickets on that premise, and if you wanted to go to the WBC, you got there.
Back to the original point, if the Marlins get to the playoffs, they want home post-season games from a baseball perspective, but they need them from a marketing standpoint.
With that in mind, every win matters the rest of the way as they try to hold off the Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers and Giants for the top Wild Card spot.
That’s why acting decisively before the deadline, not at the deadline, should be not only a consideration but also a priority for Ng and her lieutenants.
BRAVES FALLOUT
Swept in Atlanta over the weekend, the Marlins are 1-9 against the division-leading Braves. They’ve been outscored 83-29 and out-homered 30-9 in the 10 games.
The good news? The Marlins only have 3 games left with the Braves, September 15-17 in Miami.
In 10 games against Miami, the Braves have batted a collective .309/.382/.646/1.028 with 55 extra-base hits (22 doubles, 3 triples and 30 home runs).
Atlanta’s 30 home runs against Miami are far and away the most any ML club has hit against a single opponent this season. The Rays have hit 19 in 7 games against the White Sox, while the Angels have hit 18 in 7 games against those same White Sox. No other club has hit more than 15 home runs against a single foe, half the Braves’ total against Miami.
While the Marlins have only played 10 games against the Braves in 2023 and historically have played as many as 19 in a season against individual opponents, only 3 teams have ever hit more home runs against Miami pitching in a single season. The 2006 Phillies hit 32 homers in 19 games. And both the 2019 Mets and 2019 Nationals connected for 31 in 19 games.
A stat I’ve seen swirling around social media since the rough weekend in Atlanta is that the Marlins are 1-9 against the Braves but now 49-28 against all other opponents. While that is indeed accurate, it’s also fair to look at where most of those 49 wins have come from. 18 (more than 1/3 of them) have been recorded against the last-place Red Sox, Royals, Athletics, Nationals, Cardinals and Rockies. Another 12 have come against current 4th-place teams. So 30 of the Marlins’ wins this season, 60 percent, have come against 4th- and 5th-place clubs. They only have 10 wins against teams that are currently first or 2nd in their respective divisions.
Again, it’s a reminder that the Marlins had a very favorable schedule over nearly 2 months, a span of 50 games from May 5-June 29. As you look at what’s left, they’ll have the chance to prove their mettle against better opposition with 3 series remaining against the Phillies, 2 against the Rays, 2 against the Dodgers, 2 against the Brewers, one against the Orioles, one against the Yankees, one against the Rangers, one against the Astros, one against the Reds and…gulp…one more against the Braves.
Those match-ups account for 45 of the Marlins’ final 74 games (61 percent) beginning Friday.
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES
Sandy Alcantara through 17 starts in 2022
9-3, 1.82 ERA…123.1 IP, 82 H, 32 R, 25 ER, 30 BB, 107 K, 6 HR, .190/.250/.288/.537, 0.908 WHIP…averaged nearly 7 1/3 innings and 103 pitches per start…
Marlins were 11-6 in his starts
Sandy Alcantara through 17 starts in 2023
3-7, 4.93 ERA…107.2 IP, 102 H, 61 R, 59 ER, 33 BB, 89 K, 10 HR, .251/.310/.383/.693, 1.254 WHIP…averaging 6 1/3 innings and 94 pitches per start…
Marlins are 7-10 in his starts
TRIVIA
With both Sandy Alcantara and Justin Verlander struggling this year, it is safe to assume we will not have a repeat Cy Young Award winner in 2023.
What 3 pitchers who have appeared in the majors this season have won back-to-back Cy Young Awards? (The answer appears at the end of this notebook).
SEEING STARS
Voted to start next week’s All-Star Game by the fans, Luis Arraez will be the 9th Marlin to start the Mid-Summer Classic all-time, the 7th chosen to start in fan balloting.
Gary Sheffield (3B) 1993 (voted by fans…was acquired from Padres June 25, 1993)
Hanley Ramirez (SS) 2008 (voted by fans)
Hanley Ramirez (SS) 2009 (voted by fans)
Hanley Ramirez (SS) 2010 (voted by fans)
Giancarlo Stanton (DH) 2014 (voted by fans)
Marcell Ozuna (CF) 2016 (Selected as reserve, started for injured Yoenis Cespedes)
Giancarlo Stanton (DH) 2017 (Selected as reserve, named to start at DH)
Marcell Ozuna (LF) 2017 (voted by fans)
IF YOU BLINKED YOU MISSED HIM
After being sidelined for 39 games with turf toe, Jazz Chisholm was activated from the IL last Tuesday and went 8-for-23 (.348) with 2 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI in 6 games before sustaining a left oblique strain on a swing Sunday in Atlanta.
Now the Marlins center fielder is back on the IL for the 2nd time this season and for the 5th time in his 3 full ML seasons. Since the start of 2021, Jazz has appeared in 229 of the 411 games the Marlins have played through yesterday, just 55.7 percent, a ratio that will drop by the day in the weeks ahead.
Jazz was limited to 124 games in 2021 due to left hamstring and left shoulder issues. He was disabled by a lower back strain and later underwent knee surgery in 2022, appearing in only 60 games. And he has missed nearly half of the team’s games in 2023 due to turf toe and now the oblique strain.
TRIVIA ANSWER
The 3 pitchers who have appeared in the majors this season who have won back-to-back Cy Young Awards are Clayton Kershaw (2013-14), Max Scherzer (2016-17) and Jacob deGrom (2018-19).
Hard to argue this logic Good data to put into action
If indeed the Marlins try for a rental starter, I like Greinke. He can eat up innings, is affordable, seems to rise up in big games, has ample playoff experience, and no commitment for 2024. More expensive are Kluber and Lynn. For a dark horse, what about Trevor May from the A's? Not a great year, but affordable and Oakland would likely be happy to salary dump. He is the highest-paid player in the team. He had a 115-inning year at Minnesota, so he has been underused. Could be a Jonathan Davis-style under-the-radar who requires little in return and equally little risk.