A call to arms
With the MLB trade deadline less than a month away, a surprising #1 priority has emerged for the Marlins
They’ve put themselves in an enviable position with a strong first half, but if the Marlins are to lock down a playoff spot over the final 3 months of the 2023 season, their top priority at the trading deadline must be to improve what was once perceived to be their greatest strength.
Going into the season, there were legitimate questions surrounding the Marlins’ lineup and their bullpen. The one thing people thought they knew for sure was that the rotation, led by reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara, would be the club’s bedrock.
It hasn’t played out that way, yet the Marlins have far exceeded even their own internal expectations with their overall performance thus far.
Alcantara has struggled to the tune of a 4.93 ERA through 17 starts.
Edward Cabrera has been on the IL since June 17 due to a right shoulder impingement. And he had an inflated 4.70 ERA through 14 starts before the injury.
Lefthander Trevor Rogers made only 4 starts and worked a mere 14 innings before hitting the IL April 21 with a left biceps strain and is now dealing with a partial tear in his right lat. There’s no timetable for his return.
Then there’s veteran Johnny Cueto, who the Marlins overpaid with an $8.5 million guarantee this winter. The 37-year-old worked one inning in one start on April 3 and hasn’t pitched since. He was initially sidelined by right biceps tightness, then he sprained his left ankle on a rehab assignment. Presumably healthy again, he’s been tattooed for 22 runs on 29 hits, including 10 home runs, in 19 innings over his 4 most-recent minor league rehab outings, one at Double-A Pensacola and 3 with Triple-A Jacksonville. He was bombed again last night in a start against Durham, and—if it weren’t for issues elsewhere in the rotation— Cueto would look very much like a candidate for release.
The Marlins have been saved by the consistently strong performances of Jesus Luzardo (a 3.53 ERA with 112 strikeouts in 97 innings over 17 starts) and Braxton Garrett (a 3.61 ERA in 17 games, all but one as a starter, punching out 98 in 87 1/3 innings).
Garrett has stepped up significantly since replacing Cueto in the rotation. As I wrote early in the season, based upon his performance in 2022, Garrett—in my opinion—earned the right to begin this season among Miami’s starting 5. I would have slotted Garrett ahead of a journeyman depth piece like Cueto. And if the Marlins were committed to the 16-year vet Cueto, based upon Garrett’s big league performance in 2022, you could have made a strong argument he was more deserving of a rotation spot to begin the season than Rogers.
There is, however, a legitimate question to be asked about whether Luzardo and Garrett can sustain their current level of success, with both on pace to far exceed any previous major league workload they’ve experienced.
Luzardo will match his previous ML career high of 18 starts when he faces the Cardinals this afternoon, while he’s only 3 2/3 innings shy of surpassing his big league single-season high of 100 1/3 innings pitched, set in 2022.
Garrett, who last night equaled the most appearances he’s made in a season at the major league level, worked a ML career-high 88 innings last season, and has already pitched 87 1/3 prior to the All-Star break this season.
Like Luzardo and Garrett, Eury Perez (5-2 with a 2.47 ERA in 10 starts) has also been a savior, clearly the Marlins’ best and most consistent starter as a 20-year-old rookie, notwithstanding his hiccup (or was that a colossal belch?) Saturday in Atlanta. But having already thrown more innings in 2023 than in either of his 2 previous professional seasons, his workload is going to have to be limited down the stretch. There is no chance the Marlins continue to run Perez out for 5 or 6 innings every 5 days for the remainder of the season and, potentially, into October.
Lastly, as we were reminded in Friday’s 16-4 loss to the powerful Braves, current fill-in Bryan Hoeing isn’t a long-term rotation answer for a team that will face a challenging 2nd-half schedule and is trying to push toward the postseason.
So as you look toward the 2nd half, it is not a stretch to say the Marlins do not have one sure thing in their rotation.
No one expected Alcantara to be 3-7 with the 7th-highest ERA (4.93) among qualifying pitchers in MLB, the 2nd-highest in the NL, on the Fourth of July. He was 9-3 with a 1.82 ERA through the same number of starts last year.
Perez’s workload will be managed carefully down the stretch, and he could be shut down altogether.
Luzardo and Garrett are entering uncharted waters in terms of big league workload.
Cabrera is on the IL, and was inconsistent before the injury.
Rogers and Cueto have been hurt and ineffective.
And Hoeing is unproven as a big league starter.
And this can’t be emphasized enough: While the bullpen has been stronger than expected thus far in 2023, particularly with lefties A.J. Puk, Tanner Scott, Andrew Nardi and Steven Okert excelling, history tells us it is sure to wilt due to overwork down the stretch unless the Marlins can consistently count on more length from their rotation. Even with a recent boost in innings pitched by some of the starters, Miami has ranked in the top third of MLB in bullpen innings pitched for most of the season.
That takes a toll over the course of 162.
You want to tell me the addition of quality starting pitching isn’t priority #1 for this club?
Should the Marlins look to improve their offense between now and the deadline? No doubt.
The club is getting little production from catchers Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings. Signed to a 2-year deal this past winter, Jean Segura has been a disappointment at third base. Shortstop had been a blackhole until a recent surge by Joey Wendle. And now Jazz Chisholm has returned to the IL and, having just missed 39 games with turf toe, could miss another month or more depending on what an MRI of his left oblique reveals.
Still, if the Marlins were consistently getting the caliber of starting pitching they anticipated going into the season, the offense we’ve seen since mid-May would be plenty good enough.
That’s why priority #1 at the deadline must be proven quality starting pitching. At least one arm, maybe even 2.
If the Marlins are serious about winning in 2023, they will do what they need to do financially to make it happen.
Otherwise, what everyone assumed would be the Marlins’ greatest strength has the potential to be the club’s fatal flaw.
YOU TURN AT BAT
Take a look around the majors. What starting pitchers who may be available at the deadline would you target if you were Kim Ng?
You make a compelling case, Glenn. I still think it's premature to prioritize the team's deadline needs. The key player to me is Trevor Rogers. It's evident that he won't return until after the deadline, but still expected back at some point. If there are substantial innings to fill before his return and an available arm who's substantially better than their other internal options, then you swing a trade. We'll have a clearer idea coming out of the All-Star break depending on whether or not Rogers is cleared to resume throwing by then.
I agree with your premise. Couple of things. First, everyone was blown up in Atlanta, even Eury. Hoeing has done well in the four-inning sphere. Most of our starters are five-inning guys anyway. He, too, is in new territory for innings pitched soon, but had to be given the ball consistently. If we must, call it an opener start. We'll never know unless we extend these guys a bit. Secondly, Cueto is a sunk cost, IMO. Regarding a few guys who could adequately (not spectacularly) eat up some innings might be older guys for whom the asking price might be light. Greinke, Kluber, Lynn, Rodriguez? A bit of money, but innings guys and no long-term prospect hit. I think Giolito will be too expensive. Also wondering about a guy like May from the A's. He would be a salary dump for them, but still reasonable. I deliberately left out the Cardinals because I think they're gun-shy with the Marlins and thus, too tough to deal with !