SPECIAL REPORT: Sherman's Marlins and free agency
Having merely dipped their toes into free agent waters over the last 6 years, will Bruce Sherman's Marlins try to meaningfully fill roster holes through free agency any time soon?
A VIEW FROM THE BLEACHERS subscriber asked me a very reasonable question in the comments section of a piece I wrote last Friday. He wondered what free agent shortstop might be a good fit for the Marlins in the offseason “if they are willing to spend some money on that position.”
I’d been thinking about free agency lately, wondering when—if ever—Bruce Sherman plans to meaningfully dive into the market to improve the ballclub while also pondering how gun-shy he might feel having been burned by his one previous major dalliance, the 4-year, $53 million Avisail Garcia boondoggle.
The largest free agent signing he’s made in 6 years of ownership is one he’d like to have back at this point.
Here’s some perspective on Sherman’s prickly relationship with free agency:
It’s more complicated than merely saying the club is pinching pennies on payroll, as it has to its detriment in so many other areas of the operation because its revenues have fallen far short of new ownership’s initial pie-in-the-sky “Project Wolverine” projections.
When Sherman handed Derek Jeter the keys to the organization in October of 2017, Jeter confidently assured the rookie owner the Marlins wouldn’t have to regularly spend big on free agents because they would build a championship-caliber roster through scouting and player development. That was music to Sherman’s ears and a wonderful talking point as the owner knew he would, in the months ahead, all but give away Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon and JT Realmuto.
Sure, the club would look to fill in around the edges with a key free agent or 2 here and there. Every competitive team does. But the Captain assured the new boss that the core of the Sherman-Jeter Marlins was going to be home-grown (read: cheap and cost-controlled).
6 years later, while they’ve had some success in the trade market, no player drafted or signed internationally by the Marlins since the sale of the team has come even remotely close to establishing himself as a major leaguer.
Just looking at Marlins first-round picks over the last 6 years, 3 of them (Connor Scott, Kameron Misner and JJ Bleday) have already been traded away after underperforming, while a 4th (Max Meyer) will miss most, if not all, of 2023 following Tommy John surgery.
As for the club’s last 3 first-round draft selections:
Shortstop Kahlil Watson is hitting .209 with a .708 OPS in 37 games at high-A Beloit this season after being suspended for disciplinary issues last year. Remember Watson, with his tremendous athleticism, was thought by many in scouting circles to be a first overall-type talent on whom 15 teams curiously passed, allowing him to fall to the Marlins at #16.
Catcher Joe Mack, a high schooler out of Western New York, is hitting .196 with a .483 OPS in 48 games at Beloit. The history of high school catchers chosen high in the draft, unless they’re named Joe Mauer, is not good, but that’s a subject for a different day.
Last year’s 6th overall pick, third baseman Jacob Berry, is hitting .173 with a .505 OPS in 41 games, also with Beloit. Leading up to the draft, many saw Berry as an elite hitter but a man without a position, a likely DH before he even played his first pro game. The Marlins have yet to see that elite bat in his first year in pro ball.
But that’s merely looking at first rounders, which isn’t entirely fair. A lot of great major league players weren’t first-round picks.
That said, only 7 players drafted in any round or signed as amateurs since the sale of the club have appeared in even a single game for the Marlins this season: Peyton Burdick, Nick Fortes, Bryan Hoeing, Jeff Lindgren, Andrew Nardi, Eury Perez and George Soriano.
Despite Perez’s nice first 5 starts and his immense potential, that has not been a high-impact list over the last 6 years.
Of that group of 7, only 2 are position players (Burdick and Fortes), and only 2 have been on the big league roster all season (Fortes and Nardi).
So if years pass and you’re not drafting and developing enough players who can help you win or who possess immense trade value, there’s only one place to turn.
In the winter of 2021-22—after 4 years of ownership—Jeter lobbied Sherman to hand out $53 million to free agent outfielder Avisail Garcia because what is now the lowest-scoring offense in MLB over the last 6 seasons was in dire need of immediate help.
According to multiple people with intimate knowledge of the Sherman-Jeter dynamic, that plea—while accepted in a desperate attempt at relevance—was not well-received based on the bill of goods that had been sold to the owner in 2017.
That, along with revenues falling well short of Jeter’s expectations—most significantly with the Marlins getting less for their new TV and ballpark naming rights deals than had been anticipated and their attendance clocking in well below Jeffrey Loria-era levels—was at the core of Sherman’s dissatisfaction with Jeter.
That unease precipitated Jeter’s departure as club CEO in February of 2022.
What was widely reported as a situation where Sherman didn’t want to spend enough on payroll for Jeter’s liking was more nuanced. Sherman had been told he wouldn’t need to spend big on free agents because Jeter and his hand-picked team of lieutenants would turn the Marlins into a scouting and player development machine.
That didn’t happen.
Heading into year 5, Jeter needed to overpay a mid-tier free agent to attract him to Miami early in an offseason. The owner wasn’t happy. And that was long before Garcia grossly underperformed in his first season-plus as a Marlin.
So here we are, well into season 6 of Sherman’s ownership. Jeter is gone (at least one former club broadcaster I know well was told directly by the owner to not even mention his name on the air), and Kim Ng is in her 3rd year as general manager. As I wrote last week, the Marlins currently have one starting position player (Luis Arraez) with an established track record of major league success and health who is young enough to be considered a core piece moving forward.
Could Jesus Sanchez and Bryan de La Cruz add their names to that list? They’ve shown some very encouraging signs in recent weeks, and Sherman and Ng need them to. Could Jazz Chisholm reverse 3 years of injury woes and ultimately convert his immense raw talent into sustained big league success? Sherman, Ng and the Jazz fanboys and fangirls in the marketing and social media departments need him to as well.
At some point though, Sherman will have to spend some serious money on free agents if he is ever going to improve the club to the point where fans will care enough to improve dismal attendance numbers.
Even with the team’s recent success, the attendance remains an embarrassment to this ownership 6 years in as evidenced by an average turnout of 9,566 per game on the just-completed 7-2 homestand.
Will this be the offseason the Marlins spend? Will shortstop be one of the positions addressed? The ball is in Sherman’s court.
BRUCE SHERMAN’S MARLINS IN FREE AGENCY
Over 6 offseasons since Bruce Sherman purchased the Marlins, he has authorized the signing of 14 major league free agents, whose deals total 22 years and $157.6 million.
That breaks down to an average of $26.267 million committed to free agents each offseason, with the average deal being for less than 2 seasons and for just over $11 million total. However, both of those averages are skewed by the contracts awarded to Avisail Garcia (4 years and $53 million) and Jorge Soler (3 years and $36 million) prior to the start of the 2022 season. Without those 2 contracts, the average total Marlins off-season outlay on free agency is only $13.72 million annually, and the average individual free agent contract doled out by Sherman is for one year and $5.7 million.
For the sake of comparison, the average annual salary of a player on an Opening Day ML roster in 2023 was $4.9 million.
Is that going to enable you to challenge the Braves, Mets and Phillies perennially?
To put the total of $157.6 million spent over the last 6 years combined in perspective, 30 players across the majors have signed larger deals individually over the last 6 offseasons alone.
Since that $157.6 million mark was first eclipsed by an individual player in the 2000-01 offseason, 55 ML players have signed contracts worth more than the Marlins’ total free agent expenditure to all players since Sherman bought the club in 2017.
The first 3 of those deals, as mentioned in the 2000-01 offseason, were signed by Alex Rodriguez ($252 million over 10 years with the Rangers), Manny Ramirez ($160 million over 8 years with the Red Sox) and—quite ironically—Derek Jeter ($189 million over 10 years with the Yankees).
Here’s a look at the major league free agents the Marlins have signed each offseason since Sherman purchased the club:
2017-18 (1 free agent, 1 year, $3.25 million)
Cameron Maybin (1 year, $3.25 million) February 21, 2018
2018-19 (2 free agents, 2 years, $4.5 million)
Neil Walker (1 year, $2 million) January 29, 2019
Sergio Romo (1 year, $2.5 million) February 13, 2019
2019-20 (5 free agents, 6 years, $25.35 million)
Yimi Garcia (1 year, $1.1 million) December 20, 2019
Corey Dickerson (2 years, $17.5 million) January 7, 2020
Francisco Cervelli (1 year, $2 million) January 9, 2020
Matt Joyce (1 year, $1.5 million) February 3, 2020
Brandon Kintzler (1 year, $3.25 million) February 3, 2020
2020-21 (2 free agents, 3 years, $10 million)
Anthony Bass (2 years, $5 million) January 22, 2021
Adam Duvall (1 year, $5 million) February 9, 2021
2021-22 (2 free agents, 7 years, $89 million)
Avisail Garcia (4 years, $53 million) November 29, 2021
Jorge Soler (3 years, $36 million) March 20, 2022
2022-23 (2 free agents, 3 years, $25.5 million)
Jean Segura (2 years, $17 million) December 28, 2022
Johnny Cueto (1 year, $8.5 million) January 10, 2023
What you see is a lot of shopping off the bargain rack—picking at what’s left in late January, February and even March—with only 3 of the 14 free agents signings announced before New Year’s Day.
Those 3: Yimi Garcia signed a one-year, $1.1 million deal that didn’t garner much attention 5 days before Christmas in 2019. Avi Garcia, who had no reported market outside of the Marlins, was an overpay to get him to agree to sign for PR and ticket-selling purposes 2 days prior to the start of the lockout would shut down all transactions in 2021. And Jean Segura, who was reported to have had interest from only the Tigers, signed with Miami December 28, 2022 after being cut loose by the division rival Phillies.
Great Article Glenn. You really do you homework. What are your thoughts on Jacob Amaya who is
currently with JAX the triple A Marlin Affiliate? He is having a stellar first couple of months at Jacksonville.
Great story Geff.