He's still under the overall radar because it is early, he plays for the Marlins, and previously with the Twins, also not high profile teams. If he's near or over .400 in three weeks, the high beams will come on. The 1994 debacle was so sad for Gwynn and, of course, was the beginning of the end for my beloved Expos, 74-40 when play stopped. Ugh.
I feel like people would start looking at it seriously if he gets to the All-Star break at or near .400. The All-Star Game draws eyeballs, and that’s the window of time when the NBA and NHL are over but before football training camps start. Really the only time of the season MLB has the world of sports to itself.
All great points. I still think multi-hit games is significant simply because of the way the arithmetic works with 4-5 ABs per game. I didn't realize how few hits away from .400 those guys were. I am super excited about his season. It's a little like watching Ichiro going for 3000. But this is even more significant. First, to me it's more historically significant. Second, if he does it, the entire accomplishment is as a Marlin.
Excellent analysis! Your point on Arraez's low walk rate is right on. Perhaps countering that is his ability to collect multi-hit games. It would be interesting to know how many multi-hit games Carew, Gwynn and Brett had in their near-.400 years compared to Arraez's multi-hit rate in this young season. In any event, Arraez is a reason all by himself for all baseball fans to be tuning into the Marlins.
I think the pertinent number is hits per game because multi-hit games doesn’t differentiate between a game with 2 hits and a game with 5.
Hits per game…
Williams 1957: 1.23 hits/game in 132 games
Carew 1977: 1.54 hits/game in 155 games
Brett 1980: 1.50 hits/game in 117 games
Gwynn 1994: 1.50 hits/game in 110 games
Arraez through 29 games in 2023: 1.55 hits/game in 29 games
A couple of things stand out to me.
First, Williams walked a ton, so he needed far fewer hits to come close. That was one of the points I made in the piece about how Arraez would benefit in this pursuit from walking more.
Second, you can see the variety in the number of games played. Like walking more, playing in fewer games helps the cause as well. Williams missed a brief spell due to injury and played a shorter schedule. Brett missed significant time due to injury. Gwynn had the final 45 games canceled due to the strike. Carew basically played every day and had 239 hits. But in 155 games, he came up short. Gwynn had 165 hits in 110 games and came up short, but was closer than Carew because of fewer games played.
There’s a long way to go. Would be fun to see Arraez give it a run. If he does, it will also be interesting to see how he holds up to the media scrutiny that would accompany the pursuit, more so on the road. He’d benefit from playing in Miami, where far fewer people cover the team. And by August and September, all media focus is on the Dolphins.
When it comes to walks, I wonder if the rest of the teams poor performance will help him. Can’t recall which game it was, but I think he had a multi hit game earlier in the year where he was intentionally walked. Could see that happening more if he keeps hitting and the rest of the team doesn’t.
If few others are on base, and Arraez is mostly a singles hitter, there’s no reason to pitch around him or walk him. Barry Bonds was intentionally walked a lot because he could change a game with one swing. Walking Bonds intentionally was preferable to allowing a home run. Walking Arraez is no different than giving up a single to him. Singles hitters don’t get intentionally walked or pitched around, especially when they’re in a lineup that is currently last in baseball in runs per game.
He's still under the overall radar because it is early, he plays for the Marlins, and previously with the Twins, also not high profile teams. If he's near or over .400 in three weeks, the high beams will come on. The 1994 debacle was so sad for Gwynn and, of course, was the beginning of the end for my beloved Expos, 74-40 when play stopped. Ugh.
I feel like people would start looking at it seriously if he gets to the All-Star break at or near .400. The All-Star Game draws eyeballs, and that’s the window of time when the NBA and NHL are over but before football training camps start. Really the only time of the season MLB has the world of sports to itself.
All great points. I still think multi-hit games is significant simply because of the way the arithmetic works with 4-5 ABs per game. I didn't realize how few hits away from .400 those guys were. I am super excited about his season. It's a little like watching Ichiro going for 3000. But this is even more significant. First, to me it's more historically significant. Second, if he does it, the entire accomplishment is as a Marlin.
Excellent analysis! Your point on Arraez's low walk rate is right on. Perhaps countering that is his ability to collect multi-hit games. It would be interesting to know how many multi-hit games Carew, Gwynn and Brett had in their near-.400 years compared to Arraez's multi-hit rate in this young season. In any event, Arraez is a reason all by himself for all baseball fans to be tuning into the Marlins.
Thanks, Doug.
I think the pertinent number is hits per game because multi-hit games doesn’t differentiate between a game with 2 hits and a game with 5.
Hits per game…
Williams 1957: 1.23 hits/game in 132 games
Carew 1977: 1.54 hits/game in 155 games
Brett 1980: 1.50 hits/game in 117 games
Gwynn 1994: 1.50 hits/game in 110 games
Arraez through 29 games in 2023: 1.55 hits/game in 29 games
A couple of things stand out to me.
First, Williams walked a ton, so he needed far fewer hits to come close. That was one of the points I made in the piece about how Arraez would benefit in this pursuit from walking more.
Second, you can see the variety in the number of games played. Like walking more, playing in fewer games helps the cause as well. Williams missed a brief spell due to injury and played a shorter schedule. Brett missed significant time due to injury. Gwynn had the final 45 games canceled due to the strike. Carew basically played every day and had 239 hits. But in 155 games, he came up short. Gwynn had 165 hits in 110 games and came up short, but was closer than Carew because of fewer games played.
There’s a long way to go. Would be fun to see Arraez give it a run. If he does, it will also be interesting to see how he holds up to the media scrutiny that would accompany the pursuit, more so on the road. He’d benefit from playing in Miami, where far fewer people cover the team. And by August and September, all media focus is on the Dolphins.
When it comes to walks, I wonder if the rest of the teams poor performance will help him. Can’t recall which game it was, but I think he had a multi hit game earlier in the year where he was intentionally walked. Could see that happening more if he keeps hitting and the rest of the team doesn’t.
If few others are on base, and Arraez is mostly a singles hitter, there’s no reason to pitch around him or walk him. Barry Bonds was intentionally walked a lot because he could change a game with one swing. Walking Bonds intentionally was preferable to allowing a home run. Walking Arraez is no different than giving up a single to him. Singles hitters don’t get intentionally walked or pitched around, especially when they’re in a lineup that is currently last in baseball in runs per game.