The people have spoken
Results of our VFTB mid-season fan poll
EDITOR’S NOTE: This poll was taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday, while the Marlins were in Baltimore for the first 3 games of what is now a 5-game losing streak, matching the longest of the season. Some of these results may reflect the optimism of the All-Star break that may have faded a bit for some in recent days.
We posted our 2nd highly scientific VIEW FROM THE BLEACHERS poll of the season during the All-Star break. The polls closed Sunday, and our VFTB panel of experts worked painstakingly over the last 2 days to consummate a thorough review of all of the data.
Today we take a look at what our readers had to say about the Marlins’ season to date and what they think the remainder of the season will hold as well as what respondents said regarding the rule changes MLB has implemented in 2023.
No surprise here. Although things haven’t gone well coming out of the break, no one even internally expected the Marlins to be in the position in which they find themselves 97 games into the season.
Now the question becomes whether or not they can get back on track and finish the job. With the first half they had, expectations suddenly became ratcheted so much higher than they were in the spring. If someone would have told you in March the team would win 85 games and come up a little shy of the playoffs, you probably would have signed up for that as a major developmental step. But with where the team has been for the last month or 2, that would seem like a letdown to most.
There were really only 2 choices here, particularly with A.J. Puk’s early season roll having slowed of late. I can see arguments for both Luis Arraez and Skip Schumaker, but I’d have gone with the manager. Not to take anything away from Arraez, who is having a tremendous year, but you never really know what you’re going to get with a first-time manager. Schumaker’s fingerprints have been all over every aspect of the ballclub since the early days of Spring Training. His personality and demeanor seem to have positively impacted nearly everyone in the clubhouse.
Many were, in my opinion, unfairly critical of Don Mattingly in recent years, particularly considering the limits on what he had to work with on a perennially rebuilding roster. If you were one of those screaming about the number of close games you thought Donnie cost the team, doesn’t Skip deserve a lot of credit?
Even before losing the last 5 in a row, I felt that 90-plus wins is awfully optimistic. I don’t see any way this team plays the final 2 1/2 months at the same clip it has played to date. You have to be realistic about the difference between the schedule they played in May and June and the schedule that lies ahead, particularly an extra-grueling stretch in August. And if you needed a reminder about that point I’ve been making since late April, just look at this week, swept by a really good Orioles team and now looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of a Cardinals club that has been one of Baseball’s biggest disappointments in 2023.
This public service announcement is presented by VIEW FROM THE BLEACHERS:
The Phillies are back.
Not much to say here. This was as easy a call as any.
I fully agree with the majority here. If the Marlins find their way to the playoffs, Skip Schumaker will deserve strong Manager of the Year consideration. Other names to watch depending on how things play out the rest of the way: Arizona’s Torey Lovullo, Cincinnati’s David Bell, Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell and San Francisco’s Gabe Kapler. Not that I endorse this, but history tells us Atlanta’s Brian Snitker will get consideration if the Braves are able to stay on their current pace and win 105-110 games.
As for Arraez, while he’s clearly the team MVP, as things stand today NO ONE is in the same zip code as Ronald Acuña Jr. when you look across the National League. Even if Arraez were to catch fire and end the year hitting .400, the gap between Acuña’s all-around production and his (or anyone else’s) is enormous.
With a 5th loss in a row last night, Fangraphs has the Marlins’ playoff odds at 51.2% as of this morning. That’s down from a season peak of 74.4% coming out of the All-Star break and trails the Braves (100%) and Phillies (70.3%) in the NL East.
The Marlins were projected as the #1 NL Wild Card team at the break, but now stand 4th in the race for 3 spots in the NL Wild Card pursuit (and are 4th in the Fangraphs Wild Card projections.
Fangraphs prefers the playoff chances of the Braves, Phillies, Dodgers (95.7%), Giants (77.4%), Brewers (71.9%) and, as of today, the D-Backs (57.1%). After Miami, there’s then a sizable drop-off before you get to the Padres (26.9%), Reds (16.7%) and Mets (14.6%).
If you’re wondering, Fangraphs gave the Marlins a 23.6% chance of making the playoffs on Opening Day.
Of those who believe the Marlins will reach the postseason, one in 6 think they will win the World Series and just under 1/4 believe they’ll capture the NL Pennant in 2023. 59 percent see them bowing out before the NLCS.
78 percent of you say just getting to the playoffs—or even making a great run as they have so far—makes this a positive season for the Marlins. I think that’s a healthy way of looking at things in 2023.
That said, a collapse down the stretch would still be hard to swallow.
Fortunately no one says “World Series or bust.” This will never be a “World Series or bust” franchise.
I wrote 2 weeks ago about my belief that starting pitching MUST be the Marlins’ top priority at the trade deadline. A question for anyone who doubts the argument I made in that piece (and I ask that you read it before you doubt it): How did you feel about needing an opener in the 3rd game after the All-Star break? I won’t rehash at length what I explained in great detail in the piece I linked above that I wrote July 4, but the Marlins have legitimate questions up and down the starting rotation, and that’s without even considering the possibility of future injuries. If those questions are not addressed, a lack of rotation depth could be this team’s fatal flaw (again, see: Sunday in Baltimore).
I fully understand the Marlins need a significant upgrade at catcher. But unless you are willing to part with the package it would take to convince the Royals to change their mind about their stated refusal to trade Salvador Perez (or unless the Phillies agree to undo the disastrous J.T. Realmuto trade), improving behind the plate is an off-season project, in my opinion. If it’s not Kansas City’s Perez, who would you bring in from the limited number of selling teams that would be such an upgrade offensively that it would be worth it to have a new catcher have to try to learn an entirely new staff in the heat of a push for the playoffs? In the offseason, you have the ability to trade with 29 teams; at the deadline, the universe of sellers will be limited to around a dozen clubs.
It’s a long season. What Luis Arraez has done so far is truly remarkable. But there’s a reason why no one has batted .400 since 1941. And you guys recognize that.
I’ve been talking and writing about this for a long time, and a plurality of our readers now feel the same way. Jazz Chisholm has not proven he can stay healthy and on the field. And even when he is on the field, his production since his 2020 ML debut has not added up to even a fraction of the hype and attention he receives because of the style with which he carries himself and plays the game.
Admit it: You kind of like Dane Myers in center field.
Admit it: Most of you had never heard of Dane Myers until a couple of weeks ago.
Jazz has tremendous talent and limitless skills. He’s exciting and dynamic, and his smile lights up a ballpark. All of those things are true.
But this is also true: He’s a career .243 hitter with a .304 OBP who strikes out in 29% of his plate appearances and struggled defensively on the infield before being moved to the outfield, where he showed potential.
He’s also 25-years-old. While that’s certainly far from ancient, consider the number of active players his age or younger who are true established ML stars. And I’ll start with the player to whom many want to compare Jazz: Ronald Acuña Jr. Acuña is 45 days older, but you want to compare their resumes?
In addition to Acuña, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Luis Robert, Andres Gimenez, Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez, Steven Kwan, Adley Rutschman, Michael Harris II, Jeremy Pena, Dylan Carlson and Alejandro Kirk are all position players 25 or younger who have produced a higher career WAR to date than Jazz.
So it warms my heart that some who previously dismissed my Jazz reality check have seen the light. But the problem with considering a trade of Jazz, as a plurality of our respondents would like to, is his value is currently at an all-time low.
Luis Arraez makes sense when you couple his performance during his first season as a Marlin with what he had done previously as a Twin. He has an undeniable track record on the field and has largely maintained good health.
The second baseman is currently under club control through arbitration through the 2025 season. Many clubs would see the timing as right for a long-term deal to be made to create cost certainty in those last 2 arbitration seasons and then buy out some number of free agent years.
So Arraez is a good answer.
Not even a single vote, however, for Jorge Soler? At the end of this season, Soler can opt out of the final year of the 3-year deal he signed with the Marlins in the spring of 2022. For a team that desperately needs middle-of-the-order muscle even with Soler having enjoyed an All-Star first half, how much tougher does building a lineup for 2024 and beyond get if you remove your leader in home runs and RBI?
Soler has hit 24 home runs this season. The Marlins #2 and #3 home run hitters, Garrett Cooper and Bryan De La Cruz, have combined to slug 23.
If Soler stays healthy and has a 2nd half that comes anywhere close to his first half, he is certain to opt out of his deal. Could the Marlins extend him at that point? Sure. But once he becomes a free agent, they’d be competing with 29 other clubs for his services. If they were to lock him up sooner, they could cross off one thing from their off-season to-do list and also probably save a little money.
I wanted to give those of you who have fallen completely head-over-heels for this 2023 ballclub a chance to let it all hang out. Not many of you took me up on the offer. I wrote about the 1997 club vs. the 2003 club in response to a question from one of our subscribers earlier in the season.
The pitch clock has been a hit with fans everywhere. Now let’s see if MLB alters its usage in the postseason, as the union has requested and I discussed over the weekend.
6 out of 10 of you are very happy the way things have played out with shift restrictions. As I predicted at the start of the season, you’re still seeing hits taken away on balls hit right up the middle because, instead of standing directly behind second base, middle infielders are just a step to the left or the right of that imaginary line that bisects the middle of the diamond at the time of the pitch.
That was always my biggest frustration with the shift, more than the infielder in shallow right field, it was the infielder directly behind second base. Hitters are taught from a young age to try to hit the ball back up the middle. You should be rewarded for that, not penalized. That’s why some advocated for that pizza slice wedge restriction behind second base, a restricted zone that fans out from the back of the bag toward right-center on one side and left-center on the other side.
In general though, most are happy with how things have gone, and I don’t foresee changes to the shift restrictions moving forward.
In general, fans seem to support anything that keeps the game moving.
During the All-Star break, I mentioned the increase in stolen bases per game and the improved success rate that have resulted from the bigger bases and the limit on how often pitchers can disengage or throw over. In general though, I don’t think fans are paying much attention to the bigger bases. That’s probably a good thing.
While you’re here…
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Bad streaks are normal in such a long and demanding season, the key is to see if we are capable of overcoming them.
ahhhhh and I said it after the first two games against the Orioles, not now that we have lost 5 straight.