Jazz is back. Now what?
It can't be as simple as just picking up where he left off in May
Jazz Chisholm has been activated from the IL and should be in the lineup tonight, when the Marlins begin a 6-game road trip with the first of 3 against the Red Sox.
The 25-year-old center fielder has missed the club’s last 39 games since suffering a turf toe injury May 13.
The team Jazz returns to looks a lot different than the ballclub he left 6 1/2 weeks ago.
When Jazz last played, the Marlins were 19-21 (.475), tied for 3rd in the NL East, 6 1/2 games behind the first-place Braves.
2 games under .500 with a -58 run differential, they were tied for 5th in the NL Wild Card standings.
In Jazz’s absence, the Marlins went 26-13 (.667) with a +43 run differential. In all of Baseball, only the 27-12 Giants have a better record beginning the day after Jazz last played.
By winning 2/3 of their games since mid-May, the Marlins have vaulted into 2nd place in the NL East and—while they’re still 6 games behind the NL-best Braves, who they’ll face in Atlanta on the weekend—the Marlins now sit atop the NL Wild Card standings.
When Jazz got hurt, the Marlins were batting .246/.303/.381/.684 as a team and averaging 3.5 runs per game (last in MLB at that point).
In his absence, they hit .276/.338/.408/.746 and averaged 4.6 runs per game (11th out of 30 ML clubs in that span).
For his part, in the 39 games in which he played, the man who the marketing department long ago anointed as the face of the franchise was batting just .229/.291/.403/.694 with 2 doubles, one triple, 7 home runs, 16 RBI, 14 stolen bases and an OPS+ of 89 (his park-adjusted OPS was 11 percent below the ML average).
Those numbers are a touch below his 4-year career average of .241/.303/.441/.744 with an OPS+ of 102.
If the face of the franchise looks a little battered, that’s because injuries have limited him to appearing in 56.4 percent of the team’s games since he debuted in 2020. He’s appeared in just under half—39 of 79—so far in 2023.
Now he’s back. There’s no doubt the club could use a healthy Jazz Chisholm at his best as the Marlins look to make a playoff push in the 2nd half of the season. His dynamic blend of power and speed is unique in the game, and—if he ever put it all together—he could actually become the star some already erroneously consider him to be.
Jazz had been leading off for the Marlins at the time of his injury. Immediately after the injury, Skip Schumaker experimented at the top of the order, trying Jon Berti (9 starts), Garrett Hampson (1), Jean Segura (2), Jonathan Davis (2) and Bryan De La Cruz (2) in that spot in the first 16 games sans Jazz.
Since June 1, Luis Arraez has led off in every game but one. The Marlins are 16-7 this month and, overall this year—including starts at the top of the lineup in 7 of the season’s first 8 games—Arraez has hit a staggering .444/.488/.548/1.036 in 29 starts batting leadoff.
When you look at the roll the Marlins are on right now, it’s seems inconceivable that Schumaker would disrupt what he has going not just in the lead-off spot but even in the top half of the lineup.
MLB’s leader in batting average and OBP by wide margins, Arraez has to stay at the top of the order.
3rd in the National League with 21 home runs, Jorge Soler seems to be very comfortable hitting behind Arraez in the 2-hole.
And the 3-4-5 men, De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez and Garrett Cooper, have all been productive in those slots.
Does Jazz bat 6th? Does Schumaker try to take advantage of Jazz’s speed and hit him 9th, where he has previously said he doesn’t feel comfortable? That’s a decision the first-year manager will have to make because it seems inconceivable Jazz immediately returns to the top half of the lineup based on the way the club is currently rolling and based on his struggles before the injury.
Taking the Marlins’ success in Jazz’s absence a step further, one of the things that has stood about about this offense over the last couple of months is how it has not needed to rely on any one or 2 players to be successful.
Arraez is chasing .400, and Soler is off to his best power start since 2019, when he slammed 48 home runs for the Royals. But how many different Marlins have had hot streaks over the last couple of months? And how many different players have had big games or stepped up and delivered in game-on-the-line situations.
Jon Berti, Nick Fortes, Joey Wendle, Cooper, Sanchez, De La Cruz, Segura and others have all worn the hero hat at one time or another in recent weeks.
This offense hasn’t flourished in spite of not having Jazz as its focal point. I would argue it has flourished because Jazz has not been the focal point. Others have stepped up in key spots. And, in general, you’ve seen better team at-bats and more unselfish at-bats than you have from any Marlins team since the Bruce Sherman teardown following the 2017 season.
Marlins hitters have used the opposite field with great success. In key spots, they’ve found ways to get runners over and get them in, which is vital when playing as many close games as they have.
The Marlins have played team baseball, not hero ball. Strikeouts are down. Contact is up. Productive outs are up. That unselfishness is integral to why they are where they are in the standings today.
Can Jazz turn around 100 MPH? No doubt. Does he have massive power and game-changing speed? No doubt.
But it’s undeniable that this Marlins offense, working as a unit of 9, has been far more productive over the last couple of months than any Marlins offense in which Jazz has been the focal point.
Since the day Jazz made his ML debut, at the start of the 2nd half of the abbreviated 60-game season in 2020, the Marlins have a .435 winning percentage in games he has started and a .481 mark when he has not been in the starting lineup. That’s a 7-win difference over the course of a 162-game season.
Team offense is winning offense, and the Marlins have excelled in team offense over the last couple of months.
Could Jazz get hot and put this team on his back? Sure he could. Could he cut down on the swing and miss and improve his contact rate, which has declined each season since his debut? Sure he could. Could he produce more quality at-bats and force his way into the top part of the batting order? Sure he could.
Jazz is a dynamic talent with all the potential in the world.
But if you remove the swag and the flash, the chains, the designer glasses and the Euro steps from the equation, you would be lying if you didn’t acknowledge the offense has flourished in his absence.
Tonight at Fenway Park, Jazz will return.
The organization can only hope the marketing darling it worked to create can elevate his game to the level of the rest of the roster, the 26 guys who have, without Jazz, played terrific baseball and given this team—and it’s returning center fielder—a lot to play for in the 2nd half of the season.
He has hit the ground running, so all's well right now. Definitely concur, though, with the gist of article. Production over style. The team is trying to accomplish something this season. The team.
You’re so right about all of this Geff. We might be better without Jazz.