If at first you don't succeed...
...start another rebuild
CHECK OUT THE PREMIERE EPISODE OF MY NEW MLB PODCAST, CROOKED NUMBERS. YOU CAN SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE TODAY WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS.
Why did the Marlins start a 2nd rebuild1 under Bruce Sherman in the early days of May of his 7th season of ownership?
Because the first attempt, orchestrated under the direction of former club CEO Derek Jeter and his right-hand men Gary Denbo and DJ Svihlik, resulted in an epic swing and a miss.
Like Jeter, both Denbo (Jeter’s pick for vice president of player development and scouting) and Svihlik (his hand-selected director of amateur scouting) are now long gone from the organization. They left a mess for former GM Kim Ng and current president of baseball operations Peter Bendix.
Also long gone are virtually all of the players they brought in to replace 4 of the most prominent names in the history of the Marlins franchise, all of whom rank among the club’s all-time top 15 in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Giancarlo Stanton (the Marlins’ career WAR leader), Christian Yelich (#8) and Marcell Ozuna (#15) were all sent packing in trades consummated in December of 2017 and January of 2018, before Sherman even reached his first Opening Day as owner. While J.T. Realmuto was kept around for the 98-loss 2018 season, he was shipped off in February of 2019, just before the ensuing 105-loss debacle.
Hopes were high for so many of the 14 players who came to Miami in those deals, only 2 of whom had previously seen extensive big league action.
With sufficient time having past, more than 5 years since Realmuto was traded and more than 6 years since Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna were jettisoned, it seems fair to take a thorough accounting of those trades.
December 11, 2017: The Marlins traded outfielder Giancarlo Stanton and cash considerations to the Yankees for infielder Starlin Castro, infielder Jose Devers and righthander Jorge Guzman.
What the Marlins gave up: Weeks after being named the first and only NL MVP in Marlins history on the heels of a season in which he set club records with 59 home runs and 132 RBI, Stanton was sent packing for the Bronx. In 8 seasons as a Marlin, Stanton was a 4-time All-Star, a 2-time Silver Slugger and, in addition to his MVP award in 2017, he finished 2nd in MVP balloting in 2014. The franchise’s all-time home run leader, the artist formerly known as Mike led the league in long balls twice as a Marlin and led the NL in slugging 3 times.
Now in his 7th season with the Yankees, Stanton has been limited to an average of 105 games per full season with New York due to a series of injuries. Still, he has 142 homers and 378 RBI and has posted 8.3 WAR as a Yankee. No Marlin has registered more than 58 home runs (Jazz Chisholm) or 225 RBI (Brian Anderson) since Stanton’s departure. To make matters worse, the Marlins can also look forward to sending $30 million to the Yankees in the seasons ahead, as they are obligated to pay $10 million of Stanton’s salary in each of the 2026, 2027 and 2028 seasons.
What the Marlins received: Starlin Castro was a perfectly serviceable second baseman and occasional third baseman who compiled 2.8 WAR for the Marlins in 2018-19, appearing in 316 of a possible 324 games over those 2 years, including all 162 in 2019. As a Marlin, he batted .274 with a .733 OPS, 63 doubles, 6 triples, 34 home runs and 140 RBI. He spent 2020 and part of 2021 with the Nationals but has not played in the majors since the Nats released him in September of 2021 after he served a 30-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy. Castro spent part of 2022 with Yucatan in the Mexican Summer League and played independent league ball for the Atlantic League’s Spire City Ghost Hounds in 2023.
Jose Devers played 21 games and had 41 at-bats for the Marlins in 2021. His Marlins WAR: -0.2. He remains in the organization in 2024 at Triple-A Jacksonville.
Jorge Guzman made a total of 3 relief appearances and pitched 2 2/3 innings for the Marlins in 2020-21, posting a WAR of -0.4. After a season-plus in the Giants organization, he was released mid-2023 and finished last season in an independent league. Guzman is out of baseball in 2024.
The 3 players combined to produce 2.2 WAR for the Marlins, leaving Miami at a -6.1 in this transaction.
December 14, 2017: The Marlins traded outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals for righthander Sandy Alcantara, righthander Zac Gallen, lefthander Dan Castano and outfielder Magneuris Sierra.
What the Marlins gave up: In 5 seasons as a Marlin, Marcell Ozuna was a 2-time All-Star (2016-17) and won both a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove in 2017. That season, his last as a Marlin, he enjoyed what remains his best full ML campaign, batting .312 with a .924 OPS, 30 doubles, 2 triples, 37 home runs and 124 RBI. With Stanton, he formed as good a 1-2 punch as there was at the heart of any lineup in the majors in 2017. Since leaving Miami, he has hit 150 home runs and driven in 449, nearly 3 times as many homers and one RBI shy of twice as many as anyone who has worn a Marlins uniform since. After 2 solid but unspectacular seasons with the Cardinals, Ozuna signed with Atlanta. Among the highlights of his time with the Braves, he led the NL in home runs and RBI during the Covid-abbreviated 2020 season, he set a career high with 40 homers and drove in 100 in 2023 and he leads the majors with 34 RBI so far in 2024. He’s produced 10.7 WAR since being dealt away despite being suspended for much of 2021 while MLB investigated domestic violence charges against him. Ultimately, criminal charges were dropped.
It’s worth noting that unlike Stanton, Yelich and Realmuto, Ozuna expressed a strong desire to remain with the Marlins, even indicating he would have been willing to take a “hometown discount” on a contract extension that would have kept him in Miami. The Big Bear is in the final year of a 4-year, $65 million deal with the Braves.
What the Marlins received: Despite the success Ozuna has enjoyed since leaving Miami, any deal in which you acquire Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen looks pretty good.
While he’ll miss 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October, Alcantara won the Marlins’ first Cy Young Award in 2022. Before the surgery, he had developed into one of the great workhorses in the majors, consistently pitching deep into games in an era during which few starting pitchers do. A 2-time All-Star since joining the Marlins, Alcantara is 41-55 with a 3.31 ERA in 138 starts for Miami. He has compiled 20.3 WAR.
Zac Gallen made only 7 starts for the Marlins in 2019, going 1-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.3 WAR, before being dealt to the D-Backs in exchange for then Double-A prospect Jazz Chisholm. Gallen has emerged as an elite starting pitcher in the desert, helping the D-Backs to the NL pennant in 2023. With Arizona, he’s 41-30 with a 3.24 ERA in 114 starts. An All-Star last season, Gallen has 2 Top 5 Cy Young award finishes and has finished in the Top 10 in balloting in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Since arriving in the big leagues in 2020, Chisholm has shown flashes of dynamic talent but has been unable to sustain a high level of performance, in part due to injuries. He has 6.0 WAR over the last 5 seasons combined.
As a Marlin, Dan Castano went 2-7 with a 4.47 ERA in 24 games (17 starts) between 2020 and 2023. He totaled 0.8 WAR with the Marlins. He’s spending 2024 with NC Dinos of the Korean Baseball Organization.
Magneuris Sierra appeared in 211 games for the Marlins from 2018-21, a reminder of how lean those years were. He hit .230 with a .549 OPS, 13 doubles, 3 triples, no homers, 20 RBI and 21 stolen bases during his time in South Florida, good for a -1.0 WAR. Sierra appeared in 45 games with the Angels in 2022, spent last year in Triple-A with the Braves and, in 2024, is playing in the independent Atlantic League for the Hagerstown Flying Boxcars.
The 4 players combined to produce 21.4 WAR for the Marlins (with Alcantara accounting for 20.3 all by himself), putting Miami at a +10.7 in this transaction. If you want to include Chisholm’s contribution, Miami would be at a +16.7.
January 25, 2018: The Marlins traded outfielder Christian Yelich to the Brewers for outfielder Lewis Brinson, outfielder Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz and righthander Jordan Yamamoto.
What the Marlins gave up: In 5 seasons as a Marlin, Yelich won a Silver Slugger in 2016 and a Gold Glove in 2014. Although he enjoyed his ultimate breakout after leaving, he was very solid in Miami, batting .290 with an .800 OPS, 146 doubles, 14 triples, 59 home runs and 293 RBI in 643 games. In his first 2 years with the Brewers, he was the NL MVP in 2018 and the runner-up in 2019, going to back-to-back All-Star Games and earning a pair of Silver Slugger awards. He led the league in batting, slugging and OPS in both 2018 and 2019 and in on-base percentage in 2019. In those 2 years alone, he batted .327 with a .415 OBP, a .631 slugging percentage and a 1.046 OPS, totaling 63 doubles, 10 triples, 80 home runs, 207 RBI and even 52 stolen bases. He parleyed those 2 seasons into a 9-year, $215 million extension. And while knee and back issues have curtailed his production to an extent since the beginning of 2020, Yelich has still produced 22.9 WAR since being dealt to Milwaukee.
What the Marlins received: Are you really going to make me do this?
Lewis Brinson was an incredibly nice guy and a hard worker who just hasn’t been able to find even an ounce of success at the big league level. In 320 games over parts of 4 seasons with his hometown Marlins, the Coral Springs native batted .203 with a .573 OPS, 39 doubles, 6 triples, 23 homers and 102 RBI. He struck out in 28.2 percent of his plate appearances and logged -3.1 WAR. He spent 2022 in Triple-A with the Astros and Giants, even getting 16 games in San Francisco. He spent 2023 with the other Giants, the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants where, again, I’m sure he was a wonderful guy and a hard worker. In 2024, he’s playing independent ball in Mexico, where I’m sure es un buen hombre.
Monte Harrison was a wonderful reminder that being an elite athlete doesn’t mean you can play baseball. The athleticism was off the charts. The skill and instincts for the game…not so much. In 41 games and 57 at-bats with Miami in 2020 and 2021, he batted .175 with a .493 OPS, 2 doubles, one home run, 3 RBI and -0.1 WAR. Harrison appeared in 9 games with the Angels in 2022 before returning to the Brewers organization and hitting .208 in 88 games with Triple-A Nashville. As for 2024? Well, Richard Davenport of Whole Hog Sports in Fayetteville, AR yesterday reported that the 28-year-old Harrison will walk on to the University of Arkansas football team as a wide receiver this fall. A 4-star receiver prospect out of high school, Harrison had committed to play football at Nebraska before he signed with the Brewers in 2014. What can you say beyond good luck and “Wooo pig sooie!”
Second baseman Isan Diaz had a great year in Triple-A in 2019, and he had an unforgettable welcome to the big leagues moment when he homered off the Mets’ Jacob deGrom in the 3rd at-bat of his big league debut that season. It was a beautiful moment, with his father being interviewed on TV during the memorable at-bat.
But it was all downhill from there. In parts of 3 seasons in Miami from 2019-21, Diaz managed to bat only .185 with a .562 OPS, 14 doubles, 2 triples 9 homers and 41 RBI with -2.7 WAR. He was sold to the Giants in 2022, and spent most of that season with Triple-A Sacramento. Last year, he played 6 games with the Giants and 2 with the Tigers. In 2024, he’s playing with the Lancaster Stormers of the independent Atlantic League.
And finally, there’s Jordan Yamamoto. The Hawaiian-born righthander and official team barber of any team with which he’s played began his big league career with 14 shutout innings over his first 2 starts, both wins against the Cardinals in 2019. He was 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his first 6 starts for the Marlins. But over 15 more appearances (13 starts) for Miami in 2019 and 2020, he went 0-6 with a 9.00 ERA, finishing his Marlins career 4-6 with a 6.20 ERA in 19 G (18 GS) with 0.0 WAR. Yamamoto pitched twice, once as a starter, with the Mets in 2021 and, in July of 2023 was named head baseball coach at Dwyer High School in Palm Beach Gardens, located 2 miles away from the Marlins’ Spring Training home at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium.
The 4 players combined to produce 2.2 WAR for the Marlins, leaving Miami at a -20.7 in this transaction.
February 7, 2019: The Marlins traded catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies for catcher Jorge Alfaro, righthander Sixto Sanchez and lefthander Will Stewart.
What the Marlins gave up: In 4-plus seasons as a Marlin J.T. Realmuto had developed into the best all-around catcher in the major leagues. He was a first-time All-Star and Silver Slugger in 2018, the year he remained in Miami after Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna had been traded. As a Marlin, Realmuto appeared in 540 games, batting .279 with a .768 OPS, 114 doubles, 16 triples, 59 home runs, 243 RBI and 13.9 WAR. His ascent has accelerated since he joined the Phillies in 2019. With the Phils, he’s a 2-time All-Star, a 2-time Gold Glover and a 2-time Silver Slugger. He’s compiled 20.5 WAR in his 5-plus seasons with the Phils.
What the Marlins received: Jorge Alfaro, who had gotten his feet wet with 143 games over 3 seasons with the Phillies, was a raw talent the Marlins thought they could refine so that they’d have Realmuto’s replacement. He had power, a strong arm and good speed for a catcher. But Alfaro failed to put it together at the plate or behind it. By the end of 2021, his 3rd and final season in Miami, the Marlins were trying him in left field. In 3 Marlins seasons and 253 games, the Colombian-born Alfaro hit .252 with a .684 OPS, 31 doubles, 2 triples, 25 homers, 103 RBI and 0.2 WAR. He’s played 100 games with the Padres, Rockies and Red Sox over the last 3 seasons, struggling at all 3 stops aside from a dramatic walk-off home run to beat the Marlins at Petco Park in San Diego in 2022. Alfaro is not currently playing anywhere.
Sixto Sanchez was a break-out star when he debuted for the Marlins with 7 electric starts, plus 2 more in the postseason in 2020. Issues with injuries and conditioning limited him to one inning of work in one minor league game over the last 3 seasons combined. Sanchez is finally back in the big leagues with Miami in 2024, although the results have been far from stellar. He’s 0-1 with an 8.50 ERA in 10 games (3 starts). In 18 innings, he’s allowed 17 runs on 23 hits with 7 walks and 11 strikeouts. Overall as a Marlin, he’s pitched in 17 games, including 10 starts, and has recorded 1.0 WAR.
After 4 undistinguished minor league seasons, the Marlins released lefty Will Stewart at the end of 2023. He peaked at Triple-A Jacksonville for 36 games (7 starts) in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, Stewart is pitching for the York Revolution of the independent Atlantic League.
The 3 players have combined to produce 1.2 WAR for the Marlins, leaving Miami at a -19.3 in this transaction.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The 4 players the Marlins traded away have produced a combined WAR of 62.4 since leaving South Florida, while the 14 players Miami acquired have combined for 26.7 WAR in a Marlins uniform (20.3 of which comes from Sandy Alcantara). That puts the Marlins at -35.7 overall from these deals.
Of the 14 players the Marlins received when they traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto, only 2 are on the Marlins’ ML roster or IL in 2024 and only one other remains in the organization. Only one other is in the big leagues at all, while 4 are playing independent league ball in the U.S. or Mexico, one is in Korea and 5 are out of baseball altogether.
2 are with the Marlins (Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sanchez)
1 is in the minors with the Marlins (Jose Devers)
1 is elsewhere in the major leagues (Zac Gallen, D-Backs)
1 is playing in Korea (Dan Castano)
3 are currently playing independent league baseball in the U.S. (Magneuris Sierra, Isan Diaz, Will Stewart)
1 is playing independent league baseball in Mexico (Lewis Brinson)
5 are out of baseball entirely (Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman, Monte Harrison, Jordan Yamamoto, Jorge Alfaro)
Does anyone need a reminder why the Marlins desperately need to maximize the return they receive in any of the trades they’re going to make in the weeks and months ahead?
And the issue they face is they don’t have anyone to trade this time around who possesses the value that Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna and Realmuto did when they were traded during Sherman Fire Sale I.
Beyond that, with 6 drafts completed during the Bruce Sherman era, what do the Marlins have to show?
1.9 WAR as members of the Marlins by all players drafted over the last 6 years.
2018: Nick Fortes and Eli Villalobos have appeared for the Marlins in 2024 out of this draft and have 0.9 combined career WAR. Alex Vesia posted a -0.6 WAR in 2020 before being dealt to the Dodgers (Dylan Floro deal). 1st rounder Connor Scott was traded to the Pirates (Jacob Stallings deal) and 5th rounder Chris Vallimont was traded to the Twins (Lewin Diaz deal)
2019: JJ Bleday, Peyton Burdick, Bryan Hoeing, Anthony Maldonado, Andrew Nardi and Jeff Lindgren have appeared for Miami, combining for 0.9 WAR. Bleday has been traded to the Athletics (AJ Puk deal) and has ML time with Oakland in 2023-24…2nd rounder Nasim Nunez is in the majors with the Nationals, who selected him in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft…3rd rounder Peyton Burdick is no longer in the organization.
2020: Max Meyer (0.7 WAR)…2nd rounder Kyle Nicolas was traded to the Pirates (Jacob Stallings deal) and has ML time in 2023-24, and 5th rounder Kyle Hurt was traded to the Dodgers (Dylan Floro deal) and has ML time in 2023-24
2021: No major leaguers yet…#1 pick Kahlil Watson was traded to the Guardians (Josh Bell deal)
2022: No major leaguers yet
2023: No major leaguers yet
A reminder that the Peter Bendix Marlins will need to draft better as well if this 2nd shot at a rebuild is to be more successful than the first.
MARLINS OWNERSHIP HISTORY
Wayne Huizenga (1993-98) 408-498 (.450), 24th in MLB, 1997 World Series champions
John Henry (1999-2001) 219-266 (.452), 22nd in MLB
Jeffrey Loria (2002-2017) 1,243-1,347 (.480), 21st in MLB, 2003 World Series champions
Bruce Sherman (2018- ) 381-526 (.420), 28th in MLB
While you’re here…
Check out my new Baseball podcast CROOKED NUMBERS on Spotify, Apple, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, Audible, iHeart or wherever you get your podcasts.
Learn more about one-on-one play-by-play coaching from Glenn Geffner via Zoom at glenngeffner.com.
After trading Luis Arraez to the Padres Saturday, Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix refused to call the process of swapping established major league players for unproven minor leaguers a “rebuild.” “I'm not going to put any terminology on it,” he said on a media conference call. We don’t spin at VFTB. It’s a rebuild.
Whew! What a breathtakingly bad assessment. Luckless doesn't begin to describe it. The incompetence of the top brass since the beginning of this franchise is pretty singular in MLB history. Thanks for the summary on where all these players have gotten off too. I have watched and listened avidly for more than a decade, hanging onto every swing of the bat, every bad call and every close play. This year, I feel like all the wind has left the sails. Even the slight Ray of hope that was Peter Bendix has clouded over with scudding drifts that vex any future visions for the Fish. The stench on Miami Beach lies foul.
I am depressed after reading this. I did not know if was this bad Geff.