Hey, Geff!
Our paid subscribers have questions, and I've got answers in our latest mailbag.
I recently asked VIEW FROM THE BLEACHERS paid subscribers for questions, and you guys delivered again. Today it’s time for some answers in the next of our periodic Hey, Geff! mailbags.
(Some questions have been modified for brevity and clarity.)
HEY, GEFF! Do you think the team would move Jazz as part of a package for MLB-ready talent?
And do you think the Marlins will ever offer a Braves- or now Brewers-style contract, a long-term offer to a player with only a few months or less of MLB service?
—Sean
GEFF: I think any loyal reader knows where I come down on Jazz. He has remarkable skills and the tools to be a great player. But his inability to stay healthy and give the Marlins a full season of remotely consistent production to this point in his career prevents him from being considered a cornerstone player in my eyes.
The Marlins have played 516 games since the day he made his ML debut in 2020. Jazz has appeared in less than 60 percent of them. He’s been on the IL 7 times in the last 3 seasons alone.
Beyond that, he’ll turn 26 before the start of Spring Training. Jazz isn’t a kid anymore. He’s only 45 days younger than Ronald Acuña Jr. He’s about 6 months older than Juan Soto. You want to compare Jazz’s career accomplishments to date to theirs?
Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Isaac Paredes, Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Adley Rutschman and Andres Gimenez are just a sampling of the position players around the majors who are younger than Jazz, in some cases 3 or 4 years younger, and have performed at a higher level to this point in their careers.
The talent is obviously there. But can Jazz ever stay healthy for a full season and perform like a star over an entire year? And can he do it again and again? In my opinion, many fans conflate his acting like a superstar with actually performing like a superstar. There’s a big difference.
That’s all said as a prelude to answering your first question. In talking with people in front offices around the league, they see a lot more of what I see in Jazz than what many fans do. They see a guy with the potential to be a superstar who can’t stay on the field and, to this point, has spent a lot more time acting like a star than actually playing like one. So, while he has some trade value, it isn’t nearly as high as some might think.
There have been some prominent voices in the Marlins organization in recent years who would have been willing to include Jazz in the right deal. Some had grown weary of “the Jazz experience.” Some of those people—but not all of them—have departed the organization over the last couple of years. What does Peter Bendix think now that he’s in charge? Only time will tell. But I’d be surprised if anything were to happen this winter as Jazz works his way back from toe surgery and Bendix tries to get the lay of the land.
As for signing young players to long-term deals as the Braves have and as we recently saw the Brewers do with 19-year-old mega-prospect Jackson Chourio, who has yet to even play a ML game but recently signed an 8-year, $82 million deal that could escalate to $142.5 million over 10 years, you have to have the right players to do that.
In my opinion, Eury Perez is the only player in the organization who has earned that consideration. The Marlins don’t have a roster full of players like Acuña or Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley or Michael Harris II. There’s no Jackson Chourio biding his time in Pensacola or Jacksonville. The Braves can make deals like that because they have the kind of talent that warrants that kind of risk. The Marlins would love to be at that point someday soon, but they’re not there with anyone other than Eury, in my mind.
We’ll see if they approach Eury with a proposal like that. Bendix comes from an organization in Tampa Bay that has made deals like that going back to Evan Longoria in 2008 and, more recently with Wander Franco.
There’s certainly risk involved on both sides of those deals. And as for Bruce Sherman’s willingness to spend big right now? We’ll see.
If I were him and had somewhat limited resources but felt the urge to spend, I’d prioritize adding offense over locking up a pitcher who you already control for another 5 years.
HEY, GEFF! Isn’t it a smart play for the Marlins to hoard their young pitching? Last year showed how quickly things can change.
—Expos Toujours!
GEFF: Your question is so important, I recently devoted more than 1,300 words to answering it.
But now you get another bite at the apple, Expos Toujours!…
HEY, GEFF! Do you think the modern marketing pressures and other considerations are lowering Hall of Fame standards?
—Expos Toujours!
GEFF: It wouldn’t surprise me if someone somewhere had data to refute this, but I’m not sure that Hall of Fame standards are lower today than in the past, particularly as they relate to the voting done each year by members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
I think where you’ve seen the most controversy in recent years has been in a handful of selections by the era committees, where candidates who were not elected during their time on the BBWAA ballot (formerly up to 15 years, now a maximum of 10 years) sometimes get a 2nd shot at election in voting conducted by a small panel of Hall of Fame players, Baseball executives and historians.
But that’s not to say I don’t believe there has been a change in how candidates on the BBWAA ballot are evaluated.
What you see now are metrics being applied to retired players’ careers that weren’t necessarily considered when they played. Having more tools and better data to compare players to their peers—and players in other eras—has caused many to look at some players in a different light, to maybe appreciate their accomplishments more than they did in real time.
Diving deeper than merely looking at batting average and the counting stats that had been the focus for a century (hits, doubles, home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases), we can now see more clearly how players performed relative to the rest of the league during their careers. We can also quantify brilliant defense and base running in ways we couldn’t previously.
Things like that make a more compelling case for someone like 2023 inductee Scott Rolen, for example, rather than just looking at a .281 average, 316 homers and 1,287 RBI over 17 seasons with 4 clubs. At first blush, some might not look at those numbers as Hall of Fame-worthy. Digging deeper, Rolen’s case becomes more compelling.
On the pitching side, we may not see many more 300-game winners, but analysis of performances relative to the league and data that can be ballpark-adjusted has changed the way we consider pitchers’ careers. That’s on top of a relatively new-found appreciation for things like strikeout and walk rates and how tough pitchers are to hit and various other metrics.
There was a time we thought it was impossible to compare what Pedro Martinez did in 2000 to what Walter Johnson did in 1913, but with stats like ERA+, now we can.
All of that said, in my opinion, there is still something subjective about who is a Hall of Famer and who isn’t. To me, there’s a certain intangible quality that is part of making that determination. There are certain players we look at during their careers, and we know we’re watching a Hall of Famer. We’re watching one of the best to ever play the game. Not every Cooperstown inductee is going to elicit that sentiment, even when it’s easy to find data that points toward him being a Hall of Famer.
And I think that’s the source of the divide for some people.
The last thing I’ll say is this. When some sports fans want to put Baseball down and question the sport’s place in the modern American sporting landscape, people’s interest in the Hall of Fame, the debates that rage every year about who should and shouldn’t get in and the never-ending discussion of who’s not in who should be is one of the things that sets Baseball apart from other sports.
I would venture a guess that 10 times as many general sports fans could tell you who is getting inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in a given year than could tell you who is going into the Football Hall in Canton, the Basketball Hall in Springfield or the Hockey Hall in Toronto.
The Baseball Hall of Fame matters so much to so many. Whether or not players get elected is such a hot-button issue for many people. You don’t see that in any other sport.
HEY, GEFF! With the recent hiring of more front office types, what is your take on how things are shaping up for management?
—Jim G.
GEFF: Time will tell, Jim. Too early to make a call. As I wrote about Peter Bendix when he was hired (below), he comes from a great organization, one the Marlins should certainly strive to emulate. But we don’t know what kind of a leader he will be. We don’t know how good he’ll be at attracting the right front office talent. And we don’t know how he’ll fare as an evaluator with final say in every baseball decision.
While it has yet to be announced officially, I’m intrigued by the reported hiring of Gabe Kapler to oversee Player Development. I’ve known Kap for more than 20 years. While he had his ups and downs as a manager with the Phillies and Giants, he is a tremendous baseball mind. He’s a creative thinker who has the background to connect with anybody.
He was a 57th-round draft pick who became a top prospect. He was, at times, an every-day big leaguer and, at other times, a key player of the bench. He played for last-place teams and World Series champions. He was traded and released multiple times. He played in Japan. He’s managed in the minor leagues and the big leagues. And he’s gone from being fired as a major league manager to winning 107 games and being recognized as Manager of the Year to being fired again, all in the span of the last 5 seasons.
The man has done a lot of Baseball living in his 48 years.
Kap is one of a handful of people I’ve been around in my 3-plus decades in the game who I felt could wear virtually any hat: He could be a manager. He could run a player development department. He could be a GM. He could be a broadcaster. Different jobs require different personalities and different skillsets. Kap is someone who possesses a wide variety of skills and talents, and I know him to be a great communicator.
I hope he fares well in an important position.
Kap’s role is vital to ultimately answering your question. How things are shaping up in management will ultimately be determined by how things shape up on the field. And for the Marlins to eventually find a degree of sustained success that has been elusive in the 31-year history of the franchise, player development and scouting are going to vital.
In my opinion, the most important decisions Bendix and the Baseball Operations team will make over the next year or 2 are going to be who to retain and who to bring in up and down the player development chain. Having the right minor league managers, coaches and instructors is vital to developing talent, which—as we know—has been a major issue for the Marlins in recent years. And having leadership that sets the proper philosophical priorities that are embraced from the complex leagues to the big leagues is essential.
That’s what’s going to provide the ultimate answer to your question.
HEY, GEFF! Are you surprised the Marlins haven’t been more aggressive so far this offseason?
—Lorenzo D.
GEFF: Not really, Lorenzo. For one thing, they got their winter off to a late start with the change in Baseball Operations leadership. But more importantly, as I’ve expressed before, I think the hiring of Peter Bendix signals a bit of an organizational reset.
Had Kim Ng remained in control, I could have seen the club looking to turn last year’s 84-win team into a 90-win club in 2024. But I read Bruce Sherman moving on—and particularly him bringing in a member of the Rays front office—as a signal that the organization is looking to play the long game, to potentially take a step back to—they hope—take several steps forward in the next couple of years.
None of the moves they’ve made to this point in the offseason have generated any headlines. They’ve added a utility man, a possible bullpen arm and a strong-armed but offensively challenged part-time catcher.
My guess is this will be a winter of moderate ripples, not big splashes.
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Thanks for the article and deep-dive answers. I found myself nodding in agreement regarding your HOF insights in answering my question. There is no doubt about the baseball HOF's exclusivity, especially vis-á-vis the other sports' halls. It has retained the elite status and recognition, as you noted, even for casual fans.
The pivot in strategy that Bendix's hiring signifies is exactly the right move for the Marlins, in my opinion. To expect the team to consistently succeed by drawing to inside straights is fanciful. The NL East's depth is a massive consideration, even if we acknowledge the value of the extended playoff format for teams like Miami. You noted drafting (scouting) and development are keys. It appears obvious, but the nature of fandom's expectations requires discipline by an organization. That's why I loved hearing Bendix use that word immediately.