Forbes magazine noted the Ohtani deferral, while "legal," further tilts an already uneven playing field in MLB. This is another reason why LA and other top teams must not win (it removes CBT money). The most compelling wins are from super underdogs.I feel the most sadness for middling teams that try to play the game full out on this ridiculously skewed system, such as the Reds. They just keep getting hit upside the head with their terrible FA choices and never learn. Others, such as the Pirates and Royals, act for show to deflect union criticism while they try to catch a random wave every once in a while. Even heavily lauded Atlanta and the chronic playoff disappointment Dodgers have just one title in the last 25 years or 35 years, respectively. Spending $200m plus? Maybe fans of the Dodgers and Braves feel better with their increasingly irrelevant regular seasons showings, but I doubt it. Quite the opposite.
Teams like Pittsburgh, Detroit and Kansas City see opportunity in their divisions with no elite teams. The goal is to get to the playoffs. As Arizona reminded us, once you're in, you never know what might happen.
I've enjoyed your blog. As a lifelong baseball and longtime Marlins fan, I am happy with the hire of Peter Bendix. Finally, leadership with a proven track record of success in a market similar to Miami. This is what the organization really needed. As far as 2023, I agree it was a bit of a fluke. Basically they got lucky and beat up on lesser teams. They played poorly all year against the better teams. As for 2024, they are probably going to be around a .500 team. I will be surprised if they sign anyone of consequence. Besides, it's time to find out if Jacob Amaya can be an every day shortstop, if Xavier Edwards and Troy Johnstons superb minor league careers can translate into steady production at the MLB level,. Then there's Peyton Burdick who hasn't been able to hit for average any where but certainly has power and is an okay outfielder. Don't forget the stockpile of young pitchers, both starters and relievers. I am more concerned about defense then anything else. The bottom line is the Marlins are going to go as far as their pitching takes them. It makes no sense to put people in the field who can't catch the ball. I don't care what the analytics say. Loan Depot Park is a pitchers park anyway. Why can't the organization build their teams around pitching, speed, and defense? While that probably won't win many championships, at this point, that goal isn't realistic. A team that is competitive every year, that makes the playoffs many of those years will start to develop credibility and a fan base. So I think the organization is finally on the right track.
We speak the same language. Knowing the unicorn 2023 season is not going to be repeated, build around your core young pitching. I also agree that Bendix's approach (the Rays way) is best for a low-income team and will take time. Geff acknowledges the long-term strategy, as well. We saw what can happen with the expanded playoffs. Despite lack of relevance, two WS titles tops the Dodgers in the last 30 years, even throwing in the Covidball so-called championship. WS runs have a randomness and the winners in the 2000s include a few low- and middling-income teams.
While I agree with a lot of what you say, as I’ve written extensively, I’d recommend being careful about falling into the trap about the “stockpile” of pitching. Many of the pitchers people want to put in that group are either entirely unproven at the ML level, have injury concerns (in some cases annually) or fall into both of those categories. Remember this team got to September and October last year and had only 2 starting pitchers they trusted.
You can hope Luzardo and Garrett replicate what they did last year. You can hope Rogers will finally be healthy for a full year and as good as he was for half a season in 2021. You can hope Cabrera learns how to throw strikes. You can hope Perez can pitch effectively deeper into the season this year. You can hope that Max Meyer comes back from Tommy John and establishes himself as a reliable ML pitcher. You can hope that Sixto will be healthy one of these years (I’ve given up on him as a starter). You can hope that Fulton or some of the other young arms who’ve never spent a day in the big leagues pan out. You can hope Sandy comes back strong in 2025.
That’s a lot of hoping though. If you’re not last in the league in runs scored, you don’t have to rely as much on your pitching.
I’m an advocate of finding a better balance by generating more offense rather than trying to win 2-1 or 3-2 every night.
As I've said repeatedly, I think trading away major league starting pitching is beyond foolish as things currently stand for the Marlins. And Luzardo is the best they have in 2024. If they trade him, there's no way they could say they realistically expect to compete in 2024 and maintain a straight face.
Forbes magazine noted the Ohtani deferral, while "legal," further tilts an already uneven playing field in MLB. This is another reason why LA and other top teams must not win (it removes CBT money). The most compelling wins are from super underdogs.I feel the most sadness for middling teams that try to play the game full out on this ridiculously skewed system, such as the Reds. They just keep getting hit upside the head with their terrible FA choices and never learn. Others, such as the Pirates and Royals, act for show to deflect union criticism while they try to catch a random wave every once in a while. Even heavily lauded Atlanta and the chronic playoff disappointment Dodgers have just one title in the last 25 years or 35 years, respectively. Spending $200m plus? Maybe fans of the Dodgers and Braves feel better with their increasingly irrelevant regular seasons showings, but I doubt it. Quite the opposite.
Teams like Pittsburgh, Detroit and Kansas City see opportunity in their divisions with no elite teams. The goal is to get to the playoffs. As Arizona reminded us, once you're in, you never know what might happen.
I've enjoyed your blog. As a lifelong baseball and longtime Marlins fan, I am happy with the hire of Peter Bendix. Finally, leadership with a proven track record of success in a market similar to Miami. This is what the organization really needed. As far as 2023, I agree it was a bit of a fluke. Basically they got lucky and beat up on lesser teams. They played poorly all year against the better teams. As for 2024, they are probably going to be around a .500 team. I will be surprised if they sign anyone of consequence. Besides, it's time to find out if Jacob Amaya can be an every day shortstop, if Xavier Edwards and Troy Johnstons superb minor league careers can translate into steady production at the MLB level,. Then there's Peyton Burdick who hasn't been able to hit for average any where but certainly has power and is an okay outfielder. Don't forget the stockpile of young pitchers, both starters and relievers. I am more concerned about defense then anything else. The bottom line is the Marlins are going to go as far as their pitching takes them. It makes no sense to put people in the field who can't catch the ball. I don't care what the analytics say. Loan Depot Park is a pitchers park anyway. Why can't the organization build their teams around pitching, speed, and defense? While that probably won't win many championships, at this point, that goal isn't realistic. A team that is competitive every year, that makes the playoffs many of those years will start to develop credibility and a fan base. So I think the organization is finally on the right track.
We speak the same language. Knowing the unicorn 2023 season is not going to be repeated, build around your core young pitching. I also agree that Bendix's approach (the Rays way) is best for a low-income team and will take time. Geff acknowledges the long-term strategy, as well. We saw what can happen with the expanded playoffs. Despite lack of relevance, two WS titles tops the Dodgers in the last 30 years, even throwing in the Covidball so-called championship. WS runs have a randomness and the winners in the 2000s include a few low- and middling-income teams.
Thanks for the kind words, Anthony.
While I agree with a lot of what you say, as I’ve written extensively, I’d recommend being careful about falling into the trap about the “stockpile” of pitching. Many of the pitchers people want to put in that group are either entirely unproven at the ML level, have injury concerns (in some cases annually) or fall into both of those categories. Remember this team got to September and October last year and had only 2 starting pitchers they trusted.
You can hope Luzardo and Garrett replicate what they did last year. You can hope Rogers will finally be healthy for a full year and as good as he was for half a season in 2021. You can hope Cabrera learns how to throw strikes. You can hope Perez can pitch effectively deeper into the season this year. You can hope that Max Meyer comes back from Tommy John and establishes himself as a reliable ML pitcher. You can hope that Sixto will be healthy one of these years (I’ve given up on him as a starter). You can hope that Fulton or some of the other young arms who’ve never spent a day in the big leagues pan out. You can hope Sandy comes back strong in 2025.
That’s a lot of hoping though. If you’re not last in the league in runs scored, you don’t have to rely as much on your pitching.
I’m an advocate of finding a better balance by generating more offense rather than trying to win 2-1 or 3-2 every night.
I like your "hope" presentation. It is why trading Luzardo is so dangerous.
As I've said repeatedly, I think trading away major league starting pitching is beyond foolish as things currently stand for the Marlins. And Luzardo is the best they have in 2024. If they trade him, there's no way they could say they realistically expect to compete in 2024 and maintain a straight face.