And so it begins

With the trade of Luis Arraez, another Marlins rebuild is officially underway. Have they already made a major mistake?

After learning he’d been traded to the Padres, Luis Arraez bid farewell to Marlins teammates and staff members in the dugout during tonight’s game in Oakland. (Photo courtesy of Associated Press.)

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Let’s start with this:

It was inevitable.

There’s no reason to be surprised or disappointed or angry at this point.

After a failed first effort at a rebuild by Bruce Sherman’s braintrust over the last 6 years, the hiring of a new president of baseball operations and a historically bad start to the 2024 season, the question wasn’t if the Marlins would again play farm club to teams that are actually trying to win. The only thing in doubt was when the blood-letting would begin.

The answer was tonight, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan first to report the Marlins have agreed to trade All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres.

It was a year ago—almost exactly to the day—that I wrote about the possibility of Arraez flirting with .400 in his first season in Miami.

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The thrill of the chase

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Now, the closest thing Baseball has seen to Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn since the 8-time batting champion retired in 2001 is headed to the only city Gwynn ever represented, to play in the ballpark Gwynn was largely responsible for getting built.

If you want to send Arraez a “thanks for the memories” card, you can address it to 19 Tony Gwynn Drive, San Diego, CA 92101.

At this time a year ago, there were rumblings about the Venezuelan infielder, acquired from the Twins in January of 2023 in a deal for top-of-the-rotation starter Pablo Lopez, being a candidate for a long-term contract extension. He could be a face of the Marlins for years to come.

Or not.

Arraez’s smile and sweet swing were plastered around the ballpark and on promotional materials. This winter, the club announced an Arraez bobblehead give-away on August 25 and an Arraez or Eury Perez mystery “Los Marlins” jersey give-away for September 8.

Can somebody check the return policy?

Now, the 2-time batting champion and 2023 NL Silver Slugger Award winner is nothing more than the latest in the long list of players who excelled in a Marlins uniform only to be sent packing for prospects.

Among them: Moises Alou, Robb Nen, Kevin Brown, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Hanley Ramirez, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto…

But now’s not the time to be sentimental. Nor is it the time to be timid.

Now’s the time for first-year POBO Peter Bendix to go to work and to justify the faith Sherman has placed in him.

It’s time for the Marlins to part with anything of value.

Paul Severino and Tommy Hutton could well be next.

But here’s the key, and I cannot say this strongly enough:

Bendix and his army of assistant general managers and analysts need to nail these trades, particularly the deals in which they trade marquee talent, like Luis Arraez.

I don’t pretend to be a prospect expert like many in the media do. But there are a handful of voices I trust. One of them is Baseball America Editor-In-Chief JJ Cooper.

Here is his breakdown of the 4 minor leaguers the Marlins reportedly will receive in exchange for arguably the best pure hitter in the major leagues.

Dylan Head, OF

Age: 19

Head ranked as the Padres No. 8 prospect. He is one of the Padres’ seemingly never-ending supply of toolsy center fielders. He’s a plus-plus runner who has a long ways to go to reach his lofty ceiling, but he has a chance to hit for average with fringy power. If his defense and speed plays as expected, that could make him a valuable regular. Head is currently playing at Low-A Lake Elsinore where he was hitting .242/.324/.374. He has only three steals in seven attempts, but he should be able to eventually be a valuable basestealer.

Jakob Marsee, OF

Age: 22

Marsee ranked as the Padres No. 12 prospect. He is a well-rounded outfielder without a lot of plus tools, but he has five tools that rate as fringe-average or better. He is an average runner, but he swiped 41 bases last year and 12 in 13 tries in 22 games this year. Marsee is off to a slow start–he was hitting .185/.337/.333 for Double-A San Antonio at the time of the trade. He projects as a fourth outfielder who can play multiple outfield spots, but he’s had a habit of exceeding expectations throughout his career.

Nathan Martorella, 1B

Age: 23

Martorella ranked as the Padres No. 18 prospect. He is a stocky first baseman who has a lengthy track record of getting on-base. A fifth-round pick out of California in 2022, Martorella is a .266/.370/.438 career MiLB hitter. At Double-A San Antonio this season, he was hitting .294/.392/.435 with two home runs. Martorella is a line-drive hitter with occasional power that’s generally more doubles than home runs. He’s best at first base because of his slow feet and well below-average speed. He profiles as a bench bat or up-and-down hitter, but with enough feel for hitting to maybe surprise and exceed that projection.

Woo Suk-Go, RHP

Age: 25

Suk-Go was an elite closer in Korea, but so far he’s still getting established in the U.S. He was pitching at Double-A San Antonio at the time of this trade. He signed a two-year, $4.5 million deal last offseason, but was sent to the minors after he gave up 11 hits and nine runs in just five innings this spring. He’s currently 0-2, 4.38 with a 28% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate. Suk-Go has an average fastball, a downer curveball that will flash above-average and a below-average cutter. He projects as a lower-leverage reliever.

“Has a long way to go to reach his lofty ceiling”…

“Fringy power”…

“Without a lot of plus tools”…

“Projects as a fourth outfielder”…

“Best at first base because of his slow feet and well below-average speed”….

“He profiles as a bench bat or up-and-down hitter”…

“Projects as a lower-leverage reliever.”

Wouldn’t you expect more of a return in a trade for a player the caliber of Luis Arraez?

I’m all for the Marlins not waiting around to make trades until just before the July 30 trade deadline. And Sherman (AKA “Mr. Let’s Play with the Roof Open as Often as Possible to Save on the AC Bill”) won’t wait around because he can save some money by getting players like Arraez off his ledger sooner rather than later.

But if you’re going to make a deal on May 3, shouldn’t it be because you’ve received an offer you absolutely cannot refuse?

It’s not like there’s a now-or-never deadline looming. If the proposed return is less than what you want, you don’t have to make the trade right now. It’s been reported the Padres have been in pursuit of Arraez since the spring. The Marlins held the chips here. They had what the Padres desperately wanted. And the Padres apparently got that player without giving up anyone who is a lock to be a big league regular.

If you’re Bendix, why not wait? Why not get other teams involved as their needs evolve over the course of the first half of the season? Why not force the Padres to sweeten their offer out of concern of another team swooping in with a better deal to acquire the bat they’ve targeted?

If this is exactly the return Bendix wanted, an overpay for an elite major league bat, great. More power to him.

But based on Cooper’s breakdown, you can’t convince me that’s the case.

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Sherman and Bendix don’t have a Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna or Realmuto to deal this time around. They have some decent chips, but nothing like the MVP-caliber cast they traded away for almost nothing in 2017 and 2018. It is imperative they maximize their return in any fire sale trades they make in the weeks and months ahead, particularly with an Arraez or a Jesus Luzardo.

Based upon the Baseball America analysis of the players reportedly included in the deal, the Marlins seem to have struck out on their first opportunity to build toward the future Sherman has been promising since October of 2017.

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