The end
Marlins' dreams are swept away in Philadelphia
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The ending of this highly unpredictable Marlins season was, ironically, entirely predictable.
All season long, they had displayed an uncanny knack for overcoming the odds, improbably coming from behind to squeak out one narrow victory after another.
But when they reached the October stage for only the 4th time in franchise history, 2 season-long issues again came to the fore. These Marlins didn’t have enough offense, and they didn’t have enough pitching depth to beat a superior Phillies team in the best-of-3 National League Wild Card series.
With 4-1 and 7-1 victories the last 2 nights, the Phillies advanced to the NLDS to face the Braves in a heavyweight match-up that will pit the 2022 NL champions against the winningest team in the majors in 2023.
And for the Marlins, it’s the end of the line.
Hopefully Marlins fans can put their immediate disappointment aside and reflect on this team’s 2023 journey.
Let’s be real. No one who took a thorough and serious look at the National League in the spring gave these Marlins anything more than a puncher’s chance to be one of the 6 best teams in the league over 162 games.
Turn the clock back to March. Anyone who tells you today they thought this Marlins team would outplay any one of the Braves, Mets, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers and Padres as we thought we knew them in the spring is…shall we say…presenting alternate facts.
Was there a chance that, if they caught some breaks, they could be in the mix with teams like the Brewers, Giants, Cubs and D-Backs to contend for a spot if something disastrous happened to one or more of the big-spending pre-season favorites? Sure. Anything’s technically possible. But that seemed to be asking a lot.
But credit where credit is due, rookie manager Skip Schumaker made this team believe as only Ted Lasso could. And when the Mets, Padres and Cardinals crashed and burned in shocking fashion, he was able to guide this club into October.
SO HOW’D THEY DO IT?
The Marlins took care of business agains the teams you’d expect a good team to beat, going 46-27 (.630) against clubs that finished below .500, including a 25-11 (.694) mark against last-place teams. The Marlins were 38-50 (.432) against teams with winning records, 13-22 (.371) against division champions and 26-38 (.406) against playoff teams. They were 59-67, 8 games under .500, against teams that didn’t finish in last place.
They won the close ones. Despite ranking dead last in the National League in runs scored, they scored just enough to go a major league-best 33-13 (.717) in one-run games. And the Marlins went 7-3 in games that went to extra innings. Add it all up, and they finished 84-78 despite a -57 run differential, the worst of any post-season qualifier in AL/NL history.
They came from behind, recording 41 comeback victories, tied for 7th-most in MLB behind the Orioles (48), Reds (48), Phillies (44), D-Backs (43), Braves (42) and Twins (42). They tied the Phillies and Guardians for the ML lead with 8 9th-inning comebacks.
They overcame a slew of injuries. Season-opening rotation members Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto combined to make only 14 starts and to work only 70 1/3 innings all season. Sandy Alcantara’s Cy Young follow-up performance didn’t go nearly as smoothly as his historic 2022 season, and the Miami ace missed the final month and the postseason due to a sprained UCL that could still threaten some or all of his 2024 season. 20-year-old Eury Perez made his ML debut and flashed ace form in many of his 19 starts before his innings count caught up with him and he ended the year on the IL with left SI joint (hip) inflammation. Among position players, center fielder Jazz Chisholm missed 60 games over 2 stints on the injured list in May, June and July, and it was a 2nd consecutive lost season for $53 million right fielder Avisail Garcia, who was limited to 37 games by a pair of IL stints due to back and hamstring issues.
After a 53-39 first half positioned Miami atop the NL Wild Card standings at the All-Star break, the Marlins lost 8 straight to begin the 2nd half and started 13-28 after the break. But an 18-11 finish got them across the finish line with the 2nd of 3 NL Wild Cards. That’s despite going 31-39 in the 2nd half of the season.
Notable individual performances included Luis Arraez winning the NL batting title at .354, while his 203 hits ranked 3rd in the league. Jorge Soler rebounded from a rough Marlins debut in 2022 to slug 36 home runs. Trade deadline pick-ups Jake Burger and Josh Bell gave the Marlins a much-needed offensive boost over the final 2 months. Burger posted a .303/.355/.505/.860 slashline with 13 doubles, 9 homers and 28 RBI in 53 games after coming over from the White Sox, while the former Guardian Bell hit .270/.338/.480/.818 with 9 doubles, 11 homers and 26 RBI in 53 games.
On the mound, Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 in 32 starts with 208 strikeouts in 178 2/3 innings) and Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 in 31 games, 30 starts with only 29 walks in 159 2/3 innings) picked up the slack for the injury-battered starting 5. Meanwhile, Tanner Scott registered a 0.99 ERA in 24 August and September appearances. He took over the closer’s role in the final month and locked down 9 saves with a 1.65 ERA in 14 games. Andrew Nardi earned 8 wins and 3 saves while putting up a 2.67 ERA in a career-high 63 appearances.
So, no, it wasn’t the ending any Marlins fan would have hoped for after recalibrating expectations around the All-Star break. But looking back at all this club had to overcome and the manner in which it did so, a short stay in October shouldn’t detract from what the Marlins improbably achieved this season or from the hope that better days lie ahead.
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Couldn't agree more that we should simply enjoy this overachieving team. They were outliers and, frankly, even with all the facts you so thoroughly delineated, still had a sliver of a margin to attain the WC. This was my first true year of engagement with the Marlins. Pleasantly surprised doesn't do the season justice, especially after last year and the generally downcast views from long-time fans. With a realistic view of the team's circumstances, as you noted, we fans should have savored the delightful improbabilities. Now, with the Alcántara news, 2024 is not likely to be as fun. I suspect a renewed attack from the Mets, as well, despite our hopes that Cohen will ease off the spending. So, this year is likely to be fondly remembered sooner than we'd like. With the financial hit from Alcántara - reigniting the pitching needs - García's write-off, replacing Soler (likely), and the arb salary increases, it's a murky situation despite the obvious progress. Kudos to Kim Ng, Skip Schumaker, and their staffs.