The cost of success
Jorge Soler and Josh Bell's production leads to Marlins wins. It also leads to Marlins questions.
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With every home run the resurgent Jorge Soler slugs, and with every big hit newcomer Josh Bell delivers, the Marlins move a step closer to a possible National League Wild Card.
But with every home run Soler slugs, and with every big hit Bell delivers, the Marlins future gets more complicated.
Perennially starved for run production, the Marlins have gotten a season-long shot in the arm from designated hitter Soler and his 33 home runs, most by any Marlin since Giancarlo Stanton hit a club-record 59 on his way to NL MVP honors in 2017, his final season in Miami.
Soler has more than twice as many home runs as Bryan De La Cruz (16), who ranks 2nd on the club, while he also leads the Marlins in RBI, extra-base hits and slugging percentage.
The issue with Soler is, for the 2nd consecutive year, he has the option to opt out of the remainder of his 3-year, $36 million contract at the end of the season. After making $12 million to bat .207 with 13 homers and 34 RBI in 72 games in an injury-plagued 2022, he had no choice but to return for year 2 of the deal.
Making $15 million this season, however, he has excelled, earning his first career All-Star selection and providing the Marlins with power they desperately need.
Due to make only $9 million in the final year of his 3-year deal in 2024, Soler’s decision to opt out this time around gets more obvious with each long ball he crushes and with each RBI he contributes.
Soler’s 2023 success, including 9 homers in his last 19 games, means that to merely retain him for 2024 and beyond—which doesn’t add to the club’s firepower at a time it still needs more but merely maintains it at its current level (26th in MLB in runs scored and 27th in home runs)—will cost the team multiple years (likely at least 3 or 4 for the 31-year-old) and, conservatively, likely between $15 million and $20 million per season.
His production, while extremely helpful today, is going to be extremely costly tomorrow.
And that’s not even taking into account the cost of replacing him altogether should he leave as a free agent.
Josh Bell? Same story.
Acquired from the Guardians in an August 1 trade that sent 2021 Marlins first-round pick Kahlil Watson and the remainder of third baseman Jean Segura’s contract to Cleveland, Bell had signed a 2-year, $33 million deal prior to this season. Due to make $16.5 million in 2024, he can opt out of the 2nd year of the contract at the end of this season.
The guy who was batting .233/.318/.383/.701 with 19 doubles, 11 homers and 48 RBI in 97 games with the Guardians looked unlikely to beat $16.5 million and earn a multi-year deal on the open market this winter.
As of the end of July, opting out after the season had to be the last thing on Bell’s mind.
But the guy who is batting .306/.383/.639/1.022 with 3 doubles, 7 home runs and 12 RBI in his first 19 games with the Marlins—who also happens to be represented by Scott Boras—may be looking at his future very differently.
What a difference 3 weeks can make.
If Bell continues at, or close to, his current clip and chooses to exercise his right to opt out, could he return to the Marlins? Sure. But it’s going to cost them a lot more than one year and $16.5 million.
Again, the Marlins need more offense than they already have with Soler and Bell. You take one or both of them out of the lineup, and it’s going to cost a lot to replace their production let alone build upon it.
Complicating matters further is this winter’s potential free agent class. While the pitching market is deep, the market for position players—and particularly impact bats—is extremely limited. It’s also very outfield-heavy.
The small number of free agent bats available baseball-wide drives up the price Soler and Bell could receive in free agency coming off of a big year (or at least a big finish in Bell’s case). And it makes it tougher for the Marlins to replace them and/or keep them and supplement the lineup with outside help.
Let’s say both Soler and Bell opt out, but the Marlins re-sign them. Instead of being on the hook for one year for both at a team-friendly total of $25.5 million if they merely played out their current contract, the Marlins could easily end up on the hook for 7 or 8 years between the 2 at, let’s say, a combined $30 million-plus a year for the pair. And I think that salary number is being conservative.
That drives the club’s payroll up considerably for 2024 while simply maintaining the roster at its current bottom-of-MLB level of offensive production, not augmenting it in any way.
Beyond that, as you look ahead to the winter, the Marlins will need a catcher. They’ll need a shortstop. They’ll need a closer, assuming David Robertson was merely a rental for whom the club overpaid. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them go into 2024 with A.J. Puk or Tanner Scott getting another chance in the 9th inning. That would be cost-effective, but would it be baseball-effective?
And all of that is without thinking about the possibility of having to replace Bell at first base or Soler at DH.
Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently published his list of the top 30 free agents expected to be available this winter. There wasn’t a single catcher in the group. The only infielders who made the cut are Blue Jays second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield and Jays third baseman Matt Chapman.
While Merrifield makes no sense for the Marlins, Chapman is an elite defender at the hot corner, and he’s an impact bat. But with the payroll challenges the Marlins face, it’s impossible to see them playing in that market when Jake Burger has looked very much like a strong third base option since being acquired from the White Sox at the deadline. And Burger is under club control through 2028, for now at least, making close to the major league minimum.
If Bell were to leave, however, the Marlins could potentially move Burger to first base and spend big on a bat like Chapman—if they are fully invested in winning.
Beyond Soler, Bell and adding to the roster, the club faces a slew of other significant financial issues in the year ahead:
How do they overcome the brutal $24 million Avisail Garcia is due over the next 2 seasons through 2025? That Derek Jeter albatross signing smells worse by the day unless you think the .215 average, .576 OPS, 11 homers and 47 RBI Garcia has delivered over 135 games the last 2 seasons is worth $24 million for a low-revenue club.
Making matters even worse, Garcia, who earlier in the year missed 78 games with back issues, is likely headed back to the IL today after straining his left hamstring in a rare start in San Diego last night.
Beyond that, the Marlins must find a way to improve behind the plate for 2024. There are no prominent catchers on the free agent market, so that most likely gets done via a trade. Still, whatever upgrade they bring in can safely be expected to cost more than Jacob Stallings or Nick Fortes.
Do the Marlins want to work toward an extension for Luis Arraez that might buy out his final 2 years of arbitration and some number of years of free agency?
Sandy Alcantara has a raise coming his way as his contract begins to escalate, from $6.3 million this year to $9.3 million in 2024 to $17.3 million in 2025 and 2026.
Sticking with the rotation, a lot of organizations would consider early-career club-friendly extensions for pitchers who look like long-term rotation staples: Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo and maybe even Braxton Garrett. Perez and Luzardo for sure. Paying for cost-certainty through arbitration years and buying out some number of free agent years while offering a pitcher early-career financial security can be a win-win if the organization is willing to extend itself financially.
In terms of places where the club can look to free up some spare change:
You can expect the Marlins to say goodbye to Joey Wendle as a free agent this winter. He makes $6 million this season. Hitting .159 in his last 41 games and just .230 with a .589 OPS on the season, Wendle has been unable to carry over the success he had with the Rays into his 2 seasons in Miami.
And it’s safe to assume the club will buy out 37-year-old Johnny Cueto for $2.5 million rather than pick up his 2024 option at a sky-high rate of $10.5 million. Currently on the IL with a viral infection, the righthander has pitched only 32 1/3 innings and has not won a game at age 37 this season.
The bottom line is Sherman and Kim Ng will have some very challenging decisions to make this winter, and they get even tougher every time they cheer big hits from Jorge Soler and Josh Bell.
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Great article Glenn
Excellent perspective
I would have scoffed at your salary range for Soler, but now it looks as conservative as you stated. With the FA options that I figure, he's in the driver's seat. When the status quo costs a lot more than this year, adding in García's write-off, and replacing Robertson thrown in, there might not be much wiggle room elsewhere. That would tend to favor in-house options for the other holes. Maybe Maldonado, Edwards, and one of the young catchers will answer the calls. If you lose Soler (figure Bell isn't leaving), the power replacement may fall to Johnston. He hit another today and has put up a monster season. There are savings from the Wendle, Stallings, Cueto, and Gurriel departures.