State of the races
Everything you need to know about what's at stake across MLB on the final weekend (including how the Padres can still make the playoffs)
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As we head into the final weekend of Major League Baseball’s regular season, only 7 of the 12 playoff spots have been wrapped up.
Here’s what we know heading into tonight’s action.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL #1 seed: Atlanta Braves (clinched home field advantage through World Series)
NL #2 seed: Los Angeles Dodgers (clinched first-round bye)
NL #3 seed: Milwaukee Brewers (will host #6 seed in Wild Card series)
NL #4 seed: Philadelphia Phillies (will host #5 seed in Wild Card series)
NL #5 seed: Diamondbacks, Marlins, Cubs or Reds (will play at Phillies)
NL #6 seed: Diamondbacks, Marlins, Cubs, Reds or Padres (will play at Brewers)
AMERICAN LEAGUE:
AL #1 seed: Baltimore Orioles (clinched home field advantage through ALCS)
AL #2 seed: AL West champ (Rangers/Astros/Mariners)—will have first-round bye
AL #3 seed: Minnesota Twins (will host #6 seed in Wild Card series)
AL #4 seed: Tampa Bay Rays (will host #5 seed in Wild Card series)
AL #5 seed: Rangers, Blue Jays, Astros or Mariners (will play at Rays)
AL #6 seed: Rangers, Blue Jays, Astros or Mariners (will play at Twins)
WHAT’S LEFT TO DECIDE
2 NL WILD CARDS (#5 and #6 seeds)
While the D-Backs, Marlins and Cubs are getting all the attention in the battle for 2 Wild Card spots behind the Phillies, there are scenarios in which the Reds and, yes, even the Padres could still sneak in through the backdoor.
The D-Backs (84-75) end the year with 3 vs. Houston.
The Marlins (82-76) end the year with 3 at Pittsburgh but might also still have to resume last night’s suspended game at New York on Monday depending on the standings at the end of play Sunday (the Marlins led the Mets 2-1 with 2 on and 2 outs in the top of the 9th when play was halted due to rain).
The Cubs (82-77) end the year with 3 at Milwaukee.
The Reds (81-78) end the year with 3 at St. Louis.
The Padres (79-80) end the year with 3 at Chicago (AL).
NL WILD CARD TIEBREAKERS
Marlins over the D-Backs (won season series, 4-2)
Marlins over the Cubs (won season series, 4-2)
Marlins over the Reds (split season series, 3-3, but Miami wins on the 2nd tiebreaker, intra-division record. The Marlins are 26-25 vs. the NL East, while the Reds are 20-29 vs. the NL Central).
D-Backs over the Cubs (won season series, 6-1)
Reds over the D-Backs (won season series, 4-3)
Reds over the Cubs (won season series, 7-6)
THE PADRES SCENARIOS
The 79-80 Padres, left for dead weeks ago, have won 11 of their last 13 games, and there are 2 scenarios in which they could find their way into playing in October.
Here’s what would have to happen:
The Padres MUST sweep the White Sox.
The Marlins MUST lose all 3 to the Pirates AND the resumption of their suspended game against the Mets.
The Cubs MUST lose all 3 to the Brewers.
The Reds MUST lose at least 2 of their final 3 against the Cardinals.
In the event of a 3-way tie at 82-80 among the Padres, Marlins and Cubs, the Padres would advance because:
None of the 3 won the season series against BOTH of the other 2 AND
The Padres have the best record in the head-to-head games among the 3.
In the event of a 4-way tie at 82-80 among the Padres, Marlins, Cubs and Reds, the Padres would advance because:
None of the 4 won the season series against ALL of the other 3 AND
The Padres have the best record in the head-to-head games among the 4.
Got that?
Phew. Let’s move on to the American League.
AL WEST
The only one of the 6 MLB divisions still up in the air is the AL West, but the Rangers have a magic number of 1 to eliminate Seattle (and to clinch at least a Wild Card) and a magic number of 2 to eliminate the Astros and clinch the division title and the American League’s #2 seed and a first-round bye.
The Rangers (89-70) end the year with 3 more games in Seattle, where they lost the first of 4 last night.
The Astros (87-72) end the year with 3 at Arizona, a series in which both teams have a lot on the line.
The Mariners (86-73) end the year with 3 vs. Texas, who they walked off dramatically in the first of 4 last night.
AL WEST TIEBREAKERS
Astros over the Rangers (won season series, 9-4)
Mariners over the Astros (won season series, 9-4)
Rangers over the Mariners (lead season series, 8-2)
HOW THE MARINERS COULD PREVAIL
The Mariners’ only hope to win the division is to finish in a 3-way tie with the Rangers and Astros at 89-73, in which case Seattle would win the West based on the best head-to-head record within the group of 3 clubs.
2 AL WILD CARDS (5 and 6 seeds)
The standings above don’t tell the entire story because, at 89-60, Texas could potentially fall out of the AL West lead and into the Wild Card mix. The Rays are locked in to the top Wild Card, leaving the Rangers, Rays, Astros and Mariners as contenders for the 5th and 6th seeds.
The Rangers (89-73) end the year with 3 more games in Seattle, where they lost the first of 4 last night.
The Blue Jays (88-71) end the year with 3 vs. Tampa Bay.
The Astros (87-72) end the year with 3 at Arizona, a series in which both teams have a lot on the line.
The Mariners (86-73) end the year with 3 vs. Texas, who they walked off dramatically in the first of 4 last night.
AL WILD CARD TIEBREAKERS
Rangers over the Mariners (lead season series, 8-2)
Rangers over the Blue Jays (won season series, 6-1)
Mariners over the Blue Jays (split season series, 3-3, but Seattle wins on the 2nd tiebreaker, intra-division record. The Mariners are 31-18 vs. the AL West, while the Blue Jays are 20-29 vs. the AL East).
MAGIC NUMBERS FOR TEAMS THAT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY
Rangers to clinch at least a Wild Card: 1 over the Mariners
Diamondbacks to clinch a Wild Card: 1 over the Cubs
Rangers to clinch AL West: 2 over the Astros
Blue Jays to clinch a Wild Card: 2 over the Mariners
Astros to clinch at least a Wild Card: 2 over the Mariners
Marlins to clinch a Wild Card: 3 over the Cubs
For more on the MLB tiebreaker scenarios:
IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY…
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