Leaving one legacy and building another
From a history-changing stolen base with the Red Sox to piling up managerial wins with the Dodgers, Dave Roberts continues to make a mark
Tuesday was a significant day for Dave Roberts.
It was the 19-year anniversary of “The Steal,” arguably the single most impactful stolen base in major league history.
Trailing the Yankees 3 games to none in the 2004 ALCS, the Red Sox went to the bottom of the 9th inning of Game 4 at Fenway Park on the short end of a 4-3 score. They were 3 outs away from an embarrassing 4-game sweep at the hands of their historic rivals and the start of what would have been an especially long, cold winter in New England.
Facing Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer in history, Kevin Millar led off the inning with a 5-pitch walk, and Sox manager Terry Francona called upon Roberts, a deadline pick-up from the Dodgers, to pinch run.
Roberts stole second base, narrowly beating Jorge Posada’s throw to Derek Jeter. And 2 pitches later, he hurried home to tie the game on Bill Mueller’s ground ball single up the middle.
In the 12th inning, shortly after the clock struck 1 a.m., Manny Ramirez singled, and David Ortiz set off a raucous Fenway celebration with a walk-off home run to right off Paul Quantrill.
The dramatic events can be relived in the video below with bonus points available if you spot my cameo.
The rest, as they say, is history.
The Red Sox would stun the Yankees with 3 more wins to become the first and (still) only team in ML history to overcome a 3 games to none deficit to win a post-season series. When they swept 4 in a row from the Cardinals in the World Series, the ‘04 Red Sox brought home Boston’s first championship in 86 years, ending the Curse of the Bambino.
Roberts told me a few years ago that literally not a day goes by without someone asking him about that stolen base.
Outside of New England, Roberts is better-known today as the manager of the Dodgers.
And Tuesday, on the anniversary of “The Steal,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman confirmed in an end-of-season press conference that Roberts will return for a 9th season on the Los Angeles bench in 2024.
In 8 seasons since replacing Don Mattingly as Dodgers boss, Roberts has taken LA to the postseason 8 times, winning the NL West in 7 of the 8 seasons. The one season in which the Dodgers finished 2nd, in 2021, they won 106 games, one fewer than the Giants, who they defeated in the NLDS.
Since taking over at the start of 2016, when he was the NL Manager of the Year, Roberts has led the Dodgers to 3 National League championships, and they won the World Series in the Covid-abbreviated 2020 season.
In that span, they’re the winningest team in MLB and have 98 more victories than the Braves, who own the 2nd-most wins in the NL over the last 8 seasons:
BEST RECORDS IN MLB, 2016-23
Dodgers 753-442 (.630)
Astros 715-479 (.599)
Yankees 684-510 (.573)
Guardians 663-530 (.556)
Rays 659-535 (.552)
Braves 655-537 (.549)
Red Sox 650-544 (.544)
Brewers 646-549 (.541)
Cubs 636-558 (.533)
Cardinals 632-560 (.530)
In that same span, only the Astros have played more post-season games and have more post-season wins:
MOST POSTSEASON GAMES PLAYED IN MLB, 2016-23
Astros 93 games, 57-36 (.613)
Dodgers 84 games, 45-39 (.536)
Braves 45 games, 24-21 (.543)
Yankees 44 games, 21-23 (.477)
Phillies 25 games, 18-7 (.720)
His .630 career managerial winning percentage is the best in major league history among field bosses who’ve managed as many games. It’s the equivalent of winning 102 games every year.
Roberts’ teams have surpassed 100 wins in each of the last 3 seasons and in 5 of the 7 full seasons he’s managed, settling for 91 and 92 victories in the other 2 full seasons.
You want to know how many other managers in modern (post-1900) AL/NL history have won at least 3 pennants in their first 8 seasons? 11: Walter Alston, Sparky Anderson, Frank Chance, Fred Clarke, Ralph Houk, Hughie Jennings, Tommy Lasorda, Billy Southworth, Bill Terry, Earl Weaver and Dick Williams.
Of that group, only 6 accomplished the feat after World War II, only one (Lasorda) managed as recently as the 1990s and only one (Houk) is not a member of the Hall of Fame.
That’s the company in which Roberts finds himself. And’s he’s the only manager in the group to achieve the feat in an era of expanded playoffs.
Still, there were many Dodgers fans calling for Roberts’ job after LA was swept out of the NLDS by the D-Backs last week.
Seriously?
If you go back to the spring, many expected this to be the year the Dodgers finally took a bit of a step back. With ownership looking to avoid a 3rd consecutive year of spending above the competitive balance tax threshold, which would have escalated the rate of tax they pay in the future, the club’s Opening Day payroll—while still 5th-highest in MLB—was down nearly $60 million from 2022 and at its lowest level since 2019, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
And with the win-now Padres spending lavishly just down the freeway—their payroll surpassing that of the Dodgers for the first time since at least 2000 (the first year for which team-by-team comparisons are available)—many picked San Diego as the team to beat in the NL West this season.
And yet, when October rolled around, there were the Dodgers, again best in the West. Another 100-win season placed them 16 games ahead of 2nd-place Arizona and 18 in front of the Padres in the division standings.
That’s despite LA having 9 starting pitchers hit the injured list in 2023. Emerging ace and 2-time All-Star Walker Buehler missed the entire season due to injury. Dustin May was limited to only 9 starts. An All-Star last season, when he went 16-1 with. a 2.14 ERA, Tony Gonsolin spent much of 2023 on the shelf. And future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, in what may have been his final season, was also compromised by injuries, gutting his way through 24 regular season starts but seeing his max velocity dip into the 80s late in the year.
And yet somehow, Roberts’ team won 100 regular season games and ran away with the West.
With no starting pitching to speak of, and a combined 1-for-21 performance from former MVPs Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, they were dismantled by the 84-win D-Backs in the NLDS, outscored 19-6 in a 3-game sweep.
And that’s when the #FireRoberts hashtag exploded.
“The last game the Dodgers play this season should be the last one Dave Roberts ever manages for this team. #FireRoberts”—@midshipman89
“He doesn’t get the team fired up for the playoffs. #FireRoberts”—@oldergamers
“Tired of this crap. #FireRoberts”—@RickRockzz23
“A change is needed in management. It’s not working in the postseason with him. #FireRoberts”—@AntNatAtencio
“Hey, this would be a good day to #fireroberts.” @MikeGom5
“#FireRoberts and get it done by breakfast tomorrow.” @RsilvaCal
There are hundreds more.
All this for a man who has a .536 winning percentage in 84 career post-season games, a figure surpassed by only 3 managers with as much playoff experience all-time: future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy (.612), Hall of Famer Joe Torre (.592) and Hall of Famer Tony La Russa (.538).
Liked and respected in the Dodgers clubhouse and throughout the industry, the man known as “Doc” in Baseball circles will indeed return to likely lead Los Angeles back to the playoffs in 2024, 20 years after his historic stolen base cemented his place in Baseball history.
The fact that this was ever in doubt, and the fact that some Dodgers fans are bothered by the news, is as hard to believe as the historic Red Sox comeback Roberts ignited in 2004.
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Loved watching that video from 2004! 😀