I was thinking...
A look around the majors as we close in on Opening Day
VOTTO’S NEXT CHAPTER
I don’t know how much he has left, but I find myself rooting for Joey Votto as he tries to extend his career with his hometown Toronto Blue Jays.
The 40-year-old seems like an incredibly likable guy. And in an era in which many fans would be surprised by the number of players who are capable of playing the game at the highest level but don’t truly love the game itself, there has never been a question how much Votto appreciated every day he has had the chance to wear a big league uniform.
The sense of humor with which he shared his genuine sadness of being unable to find a job over the course of the winter and early spring via Twitter is endearing. I really hope he can be productive and reward the Blue Jays for giving one of the great hitters and interesting characters if this generation another shot.
Things got off to a good start Sunday, when he homered off of Phillies ace Zack Wheeler on the first Grapefruit League pitch he faced as a Jay.
DUVALL’S BACK
Along those same lines, I was happy to see Adam Duvall sign with the Braves this past week although it’s stunning they were able to bring back a key cog from their 2021 World Series run with a contract for only one year and worth a mere $3 million.
As David O’Brien wrote in The Athletic, Duvall “thinks MLB teams no longer value experience and past performance as much as analytical projections that are heavily influenced by a player’s age with no regard for his character.”
It’s hard to disagree with that assessment.
While Duvall’s time in Miami was short (91 games in 2021), he ranks—in my opinion—as one of the most under-appreciated Marlins I can think of during my 15 seasons with the club. He slammed 22 home runs and drove in 68 during slightly more than half a season while playing game-changing defense at all 3 outfield positions. He is also a high-character guy who makes any clubhouse he walks into better.
Some think the Braves may be the best team in Baseball heading into the 2024 season. With the addition of Duvall, who is expected to platoon in left field with Jared Kelenic, they’ve made themselves even better.
WHO’S ON FIRST, WHAT’S ON SECOND…EVERYONE’S AT SHORT
Remember when Derek Jeter was handed the keys to the Marlins organization and brought in Gary Denbo to oversee player development and scouting and D.J. Svihlik to run the draft?
One of their philosophies was to load up on shortstops and center fielders, premium athletes who could, in theory, slide over to play second base or third base, left field or right field, flooding the diamond with speed and elite physical talent.
That’s how the Marlins ended up with Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison and Magneuris Sierra in significant trades and high draft picks such as Connor Scott, JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Nasim Nunez, Peyton Burdick and Kahlil Watson—all selected in the top 3 rounds and all long gone from the organization with the Marlins having received virtually nothing from them on the field or in return.
The jury is still out on Jazz Chisholm—the shortstop turned second baseman turned center fielder—who the club hopes stays healthy and focussed long enough for the first time in his career in 2024 that his immense natural talents can manifest themselves over a full big league season. To this point, health and sustained production have proved elusive for the now 26-year-old.
I was reminded about that old Marlins philosophy recently when doing some work on the San Diego Padres, who hope top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill can be their full-time center fielder in 2024. The 20-year-old, San Diego’s #1 pick in 2021, has never played center field in his 200-game minor league career, which has only included 46 games as high as Double-A.
But Merrill won’t be alone as a shortstop moved across the diamond in San Diego.
Let’s go around the horn with the 2024 Padres, who open their season against the Dodgers early Wednesday morning in Seoul, South Korea.
Their first baseman will be Jake Cronenworth, who rose through the minor leagues with the Rays as a shortstop and has played 61 ML games at the position.
Their second baseman will be Xander Bogaerts, who has never previously played an inning at that position in the big leagues. He’s played 1,338 games at shortstop and 53 at third base for the Red Sox and Padres, including 146 starts at short for San Diego last season.
At shortstop will finally be an actual shortstop. Ha-Seong Kim won an NL Gold Glove in 2023 as a utility player, bouncing around the infield. But in his 4th big league season, the Padres are, at last, poised to play him at his natural position full-time, where he could easily challenge for another Gold Glove.
At third base, the Padres will have Manny Machado, a natural shortstop who the Orioles moved to third base when he reached the majors in 2013 due to the presence of Gold Glove shortstop J.J. Hardy. While he’s primarily played third throughout his career, earning a pair of Gold Gloves at the position, Machado has played 236 big league games at shortstop.
Merrill, the minor league shortstop, will get the first shot at center field for the Padres this season as he makes his big league debut. And he’ll be flanked in the outfield by 2 more former shortstops.
The Padres have brought back Jurickson Profar to be their primary left fielder. There was a time the 10-year veteran was the #1 prospect in the game as a shortstop, although he’s spent the bulk of his career in the outfield and at second base.
And in right field will be the team’s primary shortstop from 2019-21, Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis began transitioning into the outfield in 2021. He missed all of 2022 due to a PED suspension and injury. Then, in 2023, he was the Padres’ full-time right fielder and won a Gold Glove.
So the 2024 Padres will play an experienced shortstop at 7 of the 8 defensive positions, all but catcher.
ROAD TRIP
With MLB opening the 2024 season in South Korea, I’m reminded of this piece I wrote last April, proposing a long-term plan for international games that would see all 30 teams share in the benefits and challenges.
WHAT IF…?
You ever wonder how different the last decade of Major League Baseball may have looked had the Astros not moved from the National League to the American League in 2013, creating two 15-team leagues?
At the time, they were 2 years into a 4-year rebuild, during which they averaged 104 losses per season. But beginning in 2015, Houston is the winningest team in the AL, and only the Dodgers have more victories in the NL.
Over the last 9 years, calling the AL West home, the Astros have been to the playoffs 8 times. They’ve won 2 World Series and 2 additional AL pennants. They’ve gotten at least as far as the ALCS in each of the last 7 seasons.
How different would the last decade look if Houston had been competing with the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs for supremacy in the NL Central?
Would the Brewers’ run as a perennial small-market contender have never materialized? Would the Cardinals’ incredible stretch of sustained success have taken a hit? Might the Cubs still be looking for their first championship since 1908?
How different would the game look if the Astros were matching up with the Dodgers and Braves in an effort to get to the World Series each October instead of the Yankees, who they’ve eliminated from the postseason 4 times since 2015, and the Red Sox, who they’ve bounced twice since 2017?
It’s impossible to know for sure, but when you look at various transformative moments in the history of the sport—like integration in 1947; a move west and, ultimately, expansion in the 1950s and 1960s; and the introduction of the Wild Card in 1995—it may not be hyperbole to suggest that, like those ground-breaking moments, the Astros’ move to the American League was, in its own way, a hugely impactful moment in the history of MLB.
THE FUTURE IS NOW
I always get excited about the arrival of young potential stars in markets that have been hungry for a winner, so I’m hoping for full healthy seasons from Elly De La Cruz of the Reds and Oneil Cruz of the Pirates.
Promoted from Triple-A at age 21 June 6 of last season, De La Cruz provided a huge spark, hitting 13 homers and stealing 35 bases in 98 games for the Reds.
Cruz, 22, burst onto the big league scene in 2022 but was limited to 9 games last season after fracturing his ankle in April.
The 2 dynamic talents should play leading roles for their clubs in 2024 as the Reds and Pirates look to make a long-awaited move in the NL Central.
THE CY YOUNG CURSE
Blake Snell, who reportedly agreed to terms with the Giants yesterday, is one of the few recent Cy Young Award winners who will be on the mound to start the 2024 season.
Snell won the NL award with the Padres in 2023, while Gerrit Cole earned the AL honor with the Yankees. Cole is expected to miss at least the first month of the season with an elbow issue.
2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara is expected to miss the entire 2024 season with the Marlins after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Justin Verlander, who won the AL Cy Young Award with the Astros in 2022 will start this year on the IL with a shoulder injury.
2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray of the Mariners, now with the Giants, isn’t expected to pitch until mid-summer as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Corbin Burnes, who won the Cy Young that year for the Brewers, is now a healthy member of the Orioles.
2020 NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer, then with the Reds, has been unable to find ML employment after some off-field issues, but Shane Bieber, who won the AL honor in 2020, is still going strong with the Guardians.
Both 2019 honorees, the aforementioned Verlander of the Astros and Jacob deGrom, now of the Rangers, are on the shelf to start the year. deGrom, who only made 6 starts last year after signing a 5-year, $185 million free agent deal with Texas, hopes to return to the mound in August as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery.
The 2018 winners were Snell in the AL and deGrom in the NL.
In 2017, the honors went to Cleveland’s Corey Kluber, who retired this winter after being limited to 9 starts with the Red Sox last year, and Washington’s Max Scherzer. Now a Ranger, Scherzer is targeting a June return after off-season back surgery.
We can keep going with the likes of Clayton Kershaw, who won 3 Cy Youngs between 2011 and 2014. The Dodgers lefthander is expected to be out until the middle of the season following off-season shoulder surgery.
I’m starting to think the Cy Young curse might really be a thing.
While you’re here…
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I bet the Reds brass wish the Blue Jays had taken Votto in 2016 and saved them $200m. The last seven years of the deal were horrendous for Cincinnati.
The Cy Young curse is something. Just amazing the coincidences or, perhaps, the understandable results of high-powered season strain on those pitchers. Regarding the Astros and the butterfly effect of their move to the AL, was the thinking that it created a natural rivalry with the Rangers and with the Cubs-Brewers? I always thought it was peculiar.