Decisions, decisions
The next 2 months could go a long way toward dictating where the Marlins are headed
FIRST OF A SERIES
On the eve of Opening Day, I wrote about the importance of the 2023 season for Bruce Sherman’s Marlins.
Year 6 of the Sherman “Build,” represents year 3 of Kim Ng’s tenure as general manager and year 1 for her hand-picked manager Skip Schumaker.
The big league roster has been totally transformed over 6 years, with not a single player remaining who played in the big leagues for Miami prior to Sherman’s purchase of the club.
Into 2023, team results and fan interest had—to put it politely—stagnated.
The time to blame the Marlins’ woes on the field and in the community on previous ownership ended years ago.
So, yes, this was going to be a big year.
Now, with Memorial Day behind us and as we prepare to turn the calendar to June, forget about this being a big year. It really comes down to a big 2 months.
This middle third of the season—the 52 games between tonight and the August 1 trade deadline—will go a long way toward telling the story of this pivotal year and maybe even the club’s future.
Following last night’s loss to San Diego, the 28-27 Marlins are tied for the final National League Wild Card spot. Securing a trip to October over 162 games would require outplaying nearly all of the big-spending Mets, Phillies and Padres and others like the Cardinals and the surprising D-Backs and Giants the rest of the way.
Make no mistake. If they are still reasonably in the hunt come the run-up to the August 1 trade deadline, the Marlins’ front office will have no choice but to be aggressive buyers if they are to ever convince the fans of South Florida this team and this ownership are to be taken seriously.
But there’s more to it than the front office merely sitting back to see how well the team plays between now and August 1. The club has countless important questions it must answer between now and then to determine how to maneuver at the deadline as leadership sets the course for the future.
VIEW FROM THE BLEACHERS will examine a few of those decisions a day over each of the next several days.
WHAT DO THE MARLINS DO WITH AVISAIL GARCIA?: The Marlins activated outfielder Jesus Sanchez from the IL yesterday, and Avisail Garcia is currently on a rehab assignment at Triple-A Jacksonville as he nears a potential return from back tightness.
Sanchez had caught fire before straining his right hamstring May 13. He batted .419 with 9 extra-base hits and 9 RBI in his last 10 games prior to the injury, and he returned with a pinch-hit single in the 8th inning last night.
The 25-year-old has earned consistent at-bats.
Garcia, on the other hand, had seen his dismal 2022 carry into this season, hitting .188 with a .577 OPS and a strikeout for every 3 at-bats in 22 games before going on the shelf.
This is only year 2 of Garcia’s 4-year, $53 million contract. He’s still owed approximately $37 million through 2025, including a $5 million buyout for 2026.
That would be a big bullet to bite if the Marlins were to walk away from Garcia, especially with the Marlins’ revenue numbers as low as they are under Sherman’s inexperienced front office leadership team. But at what point do the Marlins decide to move on from the struggling outfielder if they’re serious about having the best available 26 players on the roster at all times?
Has Garcia had a handful of big hits over the last 2 years? Sure. But overpaying a free agent who didn’t have much of a market to get him to sign before the impending lockout in November of 2021 is clearly on the short list of the biggest mistakes made on the baseball side on Sherman’s watch.
Keeping Garcia on the roster will become increasingly difficult if he continues to struggle.
Sanchez needs to play. Bryan de la Cruz has earned regular playing time. In Jazz Chisholm’s injury absence, even newcomer Jonathan Davis looks more worthy of playing time than Garcia, as do Jon Berti and Garrett Hampson, who—like Davis—bring speed, better defense and defensive versatility. Meanwhile Jorge Soler remains in the mix for some outfield at-bats to give DH opportunities to either Yuli Gurriel or Garrett Cooper.
Some have suggested the club “Just trade Garcia for a bucket of balls.” That’s ignoring the point that the hold-up wouldn’t be what a team would send Miami in exchange for Garcia. The problem is no one will want to take on his contract as long as Garcia ranks among the least-productive bats in the league. And a swap of “your bad contract for mine” makes little sense for a penny-pinching team like the Marlins.
Under this ownership, the club ate one year and $22 million owed to Wei-Yin Chen when they released the lefthander 4 years into a disastrous 5-year contract after the 2019 season. Could they make a similar move with Garcia?
The clock is ticking.
HOW TO FILL OUT THE ROTATION: Expected to be a strength, the Marlins’ rotation came out of Memorial Day Weekend 17th in the majors in ERA and 24th in innings pitched per start.
Sandy Alcantara has shown flashes of his Cy Young brilliance, but has been inconsistent so far, posting a 4.93 ERA through 11 starts. Jesus Luzardo and injury replacement Braxton Garrett have been the staff’s most reliable arms as Edward Cabrera and 20-year-old Eury Perez look to get their sea legs under them at the big league level.
Meanwhile, Trevor Rogers (left biceps strain) worked 4 scoreless innings in a rehab start at low-A Jupiter last night, and Johnny Cueto (right biceps tightness and sprained left ankle), like Rogers a member of the Opening Day starting rotation, is working his way back, having thrown a 40-pitch bullpen session yesterday.
After a rough 2022, Rogers had very mixed results in 4 April starts. And Cueto lasted only one inning before getting hurt in his opening week Marlins debut.
Where, if anywhere, do Rogers and Cueto fit if everyone is healthy?
The reality is it’s impossible to imagine the club not having additional health issues in the rotation—and I’ve written previously about how careful the Marlins will need to be with Perez’s innings as a 20-year-old rookie with only 155 professional innings under his belt over the last 2 years.
But at the moment, it’s hard to see the Marlins pulling Garrett, Cabrera or Perez out of the rotation in favor of Rogers or the 37-year-old Cueto.
WHAT CAN THE MARLINS EXPECT FROM JAZZ IN 2023?: Center fielder Jazz Chisholm hasn’t played since May 8 due to turf toe. There have been conflicting reports regarding how close Jazz may or may not be to returning, and there are even rumblings that season-ending surgery has not been ruled out.
Despite his .229 average and career-high strikeout rate, Jazz hit 7 homers and stole a team-leading 14 bases in 39 games before his injury. While he is not yet the established big league star many fans and marketing executives see when they look at him, his return—whenever it may be—would represent an upgrade to the lineup.
If it were to come to pass that Jazz doesn’t return in 2023, it would be even more critical than it already seems to be that the Marlins add offense at the deadline if they’re to compete for a playoff spot this season.
And speaking of looming decisions, while Jazz was showing clear signs of turning into a good center fielder as time went on, the lack of offensive production the Marlins have received on the left side of the infield has to make you wonder if a move back to the infield could be in Jazz’s future, not necessarily in 2023 when and if he returns, but in 2024 and beyond.
The last thing the organization should want to do is jerk Jazz back and forth between the infield and the outfield. It’s unfair to him and his development at a certain point. But Jazz’s athleticism and versatility give the Marlins some flexibility, depending on what other bats may emerge or may be acquired.
Think back over the years to the number of times the Marlins have moved players around defensively for the sole purpose of getting a bat into the lineup.
Miguel Cabrera, Chris Coghlan and Logan Morrison are names that immediately come to mind.
It’s not ideal, but it goes with the territory. Low-payroll teams have to get creative sometimes.
Come back for Part 2 of this series tomorrow, as we look at more of the burning questions the Marlins must answer in the months ahead.
What issues concern you the most? Comment below.
Great article Glen thanks
I'm very confused and concerned about Sandy. He definitely doesn't look like the player/ pitcher we are used to seeing. What reason do you see for Sandy's obvious decline. Thanks again 👍👍