Breaktime
A look around the major leagues at the All-Star break
LEADING OFF WITH A WORD OF THANKS
Having reached the figurative half-way mark of the year, I want to say thank you to everyone who has made VIEW FROM THE BLEACHERS part of their 2023 baseball season.
I had no idea what this might become when I published my first post shortly before Opening Day. Now, nearly 100 posts in, I can proudly report there have been many days when we’ve out-drawn several major league teams, and we’re gaining views and subscribers by the day. At last check, we have subscribers in 37 countries, including Sweden, just added to the list over the weekend.
Välkommen!
In addition to the many Baseball fans who’ve subscribed, I appreciate the number of writers, broadcasters and front office personnel around the league who have jumped on board and continue to—publicly and privately—share their perspectives on various teams and issues around the game.
If you have ideas for the type of content you’d like to see more of, please send them my way.
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So, again, thanks for reading. I look forward to a fun 2nd half of the season.
Now let’s get back to the business at hand…
GG
IT’S THE BRAVES…AND EVERYBODY ELSE
Was the Braves-Rays series at Tropicana Field over the weekend a World Series preview? Atlanta won 2 of 3 in the showdown between what have been undisputedly the 2 best teams in Baseball throughout the first half.
The Rays, who started 13-0 and were 51-22 on June 16, have come back to earth a bit of late, ending the first half with losses in 7 of 8 and 13 of their last 20. And its conceivable they could face a 2nd-half challenge to their season-long AL supremacy from the surging Orioles (now only 2 games back in the East) as well as AL West powers Texas and Houston. Even the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox, their other 3 division rivals, remain within some semblance of striking distance of Tampa Bay.
The Braves, on the other hand, look very much like an unstoppable force in the NL.
There’s still nearly half a season to play, and—once you get to October—anything can happen in a short post-season series. But how immense does the gap currently feel between the Braves and the rest of the National League?
At 60-29, with wins in 28 of their last 34 games and each of their last 11 series, the Braves have zoomed past the Rays for the best record in Baseball.
Atlanta leads the 2nd-place Marlins by 8 1/2 games in the NL East and leads the season series, 9-1, having outscored Miami, 83-29, and having out-homered the Marlins head-to-head, 30-9.
That’s the competitive gulf that exists between the Braves and the team that hit the break with the 2nd-best record in the NL.
And whereas in the past a pursing team like the Marlins could look forward to 2, or maybe even 3, 2nd half head-to-head series in an effort to quickly make up ground, Miami and Atlanta have just a single 3-game set remaining in mid-September at loanDepot park. That’s a result of the new schedule format that cuts divisional games to 13 in 2023 from 19 in the past.
As for the other current NL division leaders, the Braves are 9 games ahead of the West co-leaders, the surging Dodgers (51-38) and the Diamondbacks (52-39), and 11 games in front of the Central-leading Reds (50-41).
Atlanta won 2 of 3 in Phoenix last month, and will host the D-Backs at Truist Park to close out their season series in the 2nd series following the All-Star break.
The Braves are already done with the Reds, having captured 5 of 6 from the rejuvenated Cincinnati club.
If the season ended today, with Arizona and LA currently in a percentage points tie atop the NL West, the D-Backs or Dodgers and the Giants would join the Marlins as Wild Card teams.
Overall, the Braves are 17-5 against the other 5 NL teams currently in playoff position, having outscored them 150-95, a +55 run differential in 22 games against the other best teams in the league.
And maybe the scariest thing about the Braves’ success is they’ve been piling up wins despite their top 2 starting pitchers being sidelined since the first week of May and having pitched only 10 times through the team’s first 89 games.
Ace Max Fried (2-1, 2.08 in 5 starts) hasn’t pitched since May 5 due to a left forearm strain. He began a minor league rehab assignment Sunday, and could return to the Atlanta rotation in late July or early August.
And Kyle Wright hasn’t been on the mound since May 3 due to right shoulder inflammation. He’s not expected back until late August.
Fried finished 2nd in NL Cy Young voting last season and has a pair of top 5 Cy Young finishes in the last 3 years. Since the start of 2020, Fried is 37-15 with a 2.64 ERA in 74 starts.
Wright, a former #1 pick out of Vanderbilt, had failed to put a lock on a rotation spot over 4 seasons before finally breaking out in 2022. A season ago, he led the NL in wins, finishing 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA in 30 starts.
Imagine a pitching staff that already leads MLB in ERA at the break adding a healthy Fried and Wright down the stretch to pair with a lineup that stands first in the NL in runs, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS.
The Braves have hit 20 more home runs than any team in Baseball and are currently on pace to match the 2019 Twins total of 307, most in a single season in ML history.
Atlanta had a franchise-record 8 players selected for tonight’s All-Star Game. That list includes 2 starting pitchers (Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder, neither of whom will appear in the game) even though the team’s 2 best starters have been out most of the season.
While many went into the season thinking the Braves, Mets and Phillies would duke it out atop the NL East all season, Atlanta has lapped the field.
WHO MADE THIS SCHEDULE?
As mentioned above, the Orioles are only 2 games behind the Rays in the AL East at the break. The youthful O’s, led by former Marlins minor league manager Brandon Hyde, have a great shot to return to October for the first time since 2016.
But, to do so, they’ll have to survive a brutal stretch of schedule coming out of the break. How about beginning the 2nd half with 3 vs. the Marlins and 3 at home against the Tigers. Then they head to Tampa Bay for 4 and to Philadelphia for 3. After 3 at home against the Yankees, it’s on to Toronto for 4 to cap a brutal 20-game stretch.
DON’T LOOK NOW
While the Rangers and D-Backs have been 2 of the best stories in Baseball thus far in 2023, the 2 teams that led the West divisions for most of the first half may want to take a quick glance at their respective rear-view mirrors.
Bruce Bochy’s Rangers lead MLB in most offensive categories and have enjoyed at least a share of the top spot the AL West every day but one in 2023. But after a 40-20 start, they’ve gone 12-19 in their last 31 games. What was once a 6 1/2-game lead in the division is now just a 2-game cushion over the 2nd-place Astros, who captured 3 of 4 head-to-head last weekend in Houston.
The defending champion Astros, who have played in 4 of the last 6 World Series and earned titles in 2017 and 2022, started modestly, just 17-18 through May 8. But they’re 33-23 since and will come out of the All-Star break with a chance to make hay during a 9-game stretch against the injury-riddled Angels, the last-place Rockies and the ML-worst Athletics. That leads into their next showdown with the Rangers, a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park July 24-26.
Meanwhile, while most expected the big-spending Padres and Dodgers to stage a season-long heavyweight bout for NL West supremacy, Torey Lovullo’s D-Backs—led by Cy Young favorite and former Marlin Zac Gallen and run-away Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll—upset the balance of power in the division in the first half.
But after peaking at 16 games over .500 at 46-30 on June 22, the’ve dropped 9 of 15, including 5 of their last 7.
While the D-Backs list a bit, despite being absolutely ravaged by injuries the rival Dodgers have hit their stride and pulled even with Arizona atop the NL West Sunday, enjoying a share of the division lead for the first time since June 4. LA has won 12 of its last 17, actually sneaking percentage points ahead of the D-Backs in the division.
Among the most notable Dodgers who will begin the 2nd half of the shelf: Starters Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery) and Dustin May (right flexor tendon surgery) are done for the season, and Clayton Kershaw (left shoulder soreness) hit the IL last week. Among key position players, super utility man Chris Taylor is out with knee soreness, while shortstop Gavin Lux will miss the entire season following knee surgery in March.
Still, the Dodgers are poised to play in October for the 11th consecutive year, and they’re trying to win the division for the 10th time in that span.
With the reduction in intra-divsion games in 2023, the D-Backs and Dodgers only play 5 more times this season, all in August.
GAME TIME
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PLAYING BY NEW RULES
With the limitations placed on defensive shifting in 2023, the league-wide batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .297, up from .290 a season ago.
Left-handed hitters have batted .178 on ground balls to the right side of the infield. That may not sound like much, but its up 32 points from 2022 when, thanks to frequent defensive shifting those grounders produced a .146 average league-wide.
Overall, major leaguers are slashing .248/.320/.410/.730 in 2023. Collectively, they hit .243/.312/.395/.706 in 2022.
We’re seeing a combined total of 9.14 runs per game on average thus far in 2023, up from 8.57 last year.
Home runs are up to 2.32 combined per game this year from 2.15 last year.
Triples per game are up slightly, .276 this year from .265 last season.
Stolen bases are up to 1.44 combined per game this season from 1.02 in 2022, while success rate has improved to 79.4 percent from 75.4 percent a season ago. The last time stolen bases were as prevalent as they’ve been through the first half of this season was 1997, when 7 players surpassed 50 steals. Into this season, no major league had a 50-stolen base season since 2017, when Dee Gordon swiped 60 for the Marlins and Billy Hamilton pilfered 59 for the Reds.
The Mets are 71-for-78 stealing bases. If sustained over the full season, their 91 percent success rate would be the best in AL/NL history.
The Marlins’ Jon Berti led MLB with 41 stolen bases a season ago. We’re not even to the All-Star break this year, and Oakland’s Esteury Ruiz has already swiped 43 bags to lead the majors. Ronald Acuña Jr. leads the NL with 41.
The average time of game is 2:37, down from 3:03 last season. A season ago, 29 of the 30 clubs averaged 3 hours-plus, with only the Tigers, at 2:58, checking in below 3 hours on average. This season, no team’s average time of game is longer than 2:46 (the Orioles and Reds), while the Marlins, Pirates, Royals and Rays average an MLB-best 2:36.
NOT BRINGING THEIR A GAME
At 25-67 (.272) at the All-Star break, the Oakland Athletics have the worst first-half winning percentage since the 2003 Tigers posted the exact same record before the break on their way to a 43-119 finish. Those Tigers actually had a lower winning percentage (.265) after the break. Over the last 70 years, the only AL/NL team with a lower first-half winning percentage was the 1979 edition of the A’s, who were 25-69 (.266) on their way to finishing 54-108.
These A’s are on pace to finish 44-118. In AL/NL history, only 3 teams have lost more than 118 games: The 1899 Cleveland Spiders went 20-134 (.130), the expansion 1962 Mets finished 40-120 (.250), and those 2003 Tigers were 43-119 (.265).
Incidentally, that Spiders team fired its manager Lave Cross after an 8-30 start. Who knew how much worse things could get under replacement Joe Quinn, who guided the Spiders to a 12-104 record.
Oakland’s ML-worst 6.04 ERA at the break would be baseball’s worst in a full season since the 1996 Tigers logged a 6.38 mark. Only 8 teams in modern (post-1900) AL/NL history have gone a full season with an ERA at 6.00 or higher, led by Hap Collard’s 1930 Phillies (6.71).
The A’s have a 6.30 rotation ERA, 29th in MLB, ahead of only the Rockies (6.47). Their 5.75 bullpen ERA ranks last.
Offensively, the A’s are last in runs scored, batting average, slugging and OPS.
YELI’S BACK ON TRACK
After dealing with significant knee and back issues the last 3 seasons, it’s good to see old friend Christian Yelich again excelling for the Brewers, who look poised to battle it out with the Reds in the NL Central in the 2nd half.
Yelich was the NL MVP in 2018, his first year after being traded to Milwaukee as part of Bruce Sherman’s introductory fire sale. He won his first batting title, led the NL in slugging and OPS and posted career highs with 36 homers and 110 RBI. He followed that up with an even better year in 2019 again led the league in batting, slugging and OPS while also finishing first in OBP, slugging 44 homers and stealing 30 bases en route to coming in 2nd in MVP outing. He missed the final 3 weeks of the season after fracturing his knee cap on a foul ball in Miami September 10.
Between recovering from the serious knee injury and dealing with back issues, Yelich was a shell of himself the last 3 years, combining to hit .243/.358/.388/.745 with 51 doubles, 7 triples, 35 homers, 130 RBI and 32 steals in 329 games over the 3 years.
But he’s been healthy and productive in 2023. Now in his 11th season, his 6th in Milwaukee, the 31-year-old is batting .284/.378/.456/.833 with 19 doubles, 2 triples, 11 homers, 46 RBI and 21 steals in 87 games.
In 60 games since the beginning of May, Yelich has hit .313 with a .914 OPS, and he’s hitting .367/1.048 with 13 RBI over his last 15games.
THE .400 WATCH
Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez went into the break hitting .383 as he tries to become Baseball’s first .400 hitter since Ted Williams batted .406 in 1941.
Since that ‘41 season, 11 qualifying hitters have reached the All-Star break with a higher bating average, none since Nomar Garciaparra (.389) and Darin Erstad (.384) in 2000, a season in which Todd Helton was, like Arraez, at .383 at the break.
Stan Musial (STL) .403 in 1948 (finished at .376, won batting title)
Rod Carew (CAL) .402 in 1983 (finished at .339)
Larry Walker (COL) .398 in 1997 (finished at .366)
Tommy Holmes (BSN) .396 in 1945 (finished at .352)
John Olerud (TOR) .395 in 1993 (finished at .363, won batting title)
Rod Carew (MIN) .394 in 1977 (finished at .388, won batting title)
Tony Gwynn (SD) .394 in 1997 (finished at .372, won batting title)
Andres Galarraga (COL) .391 in 1993 (finished at .370, won batting title)
Nomar Garciaparra (BOS) .389 in 2000 (finished at .372, won batting title)
Ted Williams (BOS) .388 in 1948 (finished at .369, won batting title)
Darin Erstad (ANA) .384 in 2000 (finished at .355)
Tony Gwynn (SD) .383 in 1994 (finished at .394, won batting title)
Todd Helton (COL) .383 in 2000 (finished at .372, won batting title)
LUIS ARRAEZ (MIA) .383 in 2023
Arraez was last at .400 on June 24, when his average sat at .401. Since then, he’s batted .291 in his last 14 games.
IN FASHION NEWS…
Growing up, I never missed the All-Star Game. And as a young baseball fan, there was nothing I enjoyed more than the pre-game baseline introductions, seeing the greatest stars in the game side-by-side, each wearing his own team’s uniform. For one night, the guys in Yankees pinstripes were on the same AL team as the guys with the Boston “B” on their caps. And for that one night each year, the garish old Pirates black and gold somehow paired perfectly on the NL side with the classy Cardinal reds and the dazzling Dodger blues.
Since 2021, however, we’ve been robbed of being able to pick out our favorite players based on their uniforms because MLB decided it could sell specially made AL and NL All-Star jerseys that would replace players’ personal uniforms.
Previously, these specially made jerseys had been worn on the Monday workout day and for the Home Run Derby. But, in 2021, someone realized they could sell more if they were worn in the actual game.
Grab yours today! Only $194.99 (plus shipping and handling)!
One of the beauties of Baseball is the game’s ability to transport us back in time. Every trip to the ballpark can conjure memories of childhood. Many of the game’s newest stars conjure memories of the hotshot prospect you saw arrive 30 years ago.
The All-Star introductions I watched in 2009 in St. Louis looked so much like 1999 at Fenway, 1989 in Anaheim and 1979 at the old Kingdome in Seattle, which stood across the street from where the stars will shine tonight.
But tonight, there’ll be no Yankees pinstripes and no Cardinals birds on the bat.
Who needs tradition when Jimmy in Des Moines has his credit card within reach and $194.99 burning a hole in his pocket?
Here is an idea for a future article: since we are buyers this year, what prospects that are out there in selling teams do you feel would help the Fish down the stretch?
Always a great read. Always